A well-known British research group published some not-so-good news about UKʼs money situation: the countrys growth might get super-slow if Donald Trump becomes US president again
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research thinks UK will see tiny growth rates (around 1.2% in next year); however if Trump wins and starts his trade-war plan these numbers could drop to just 0.4%. The long-term outlook isnt great either – they expect 1.4% growth by 2026 and 1.7% by 2030
Relative stability is under serious threat by the potential raising of import tariffs in the United States
The ex-presidents plan includes super-high taxes on stuff coming from other countries:
- 60% tax on Chinese products
- 10% tax on imports from everywhere else
This would make UK banks raise their interest rates which would hit hard the governments new borrow-and-spend plan. The think-tank says prices might jump up 2-3% in just two years – thats bad news for Prime Minister Keir Starmer who wants to make UK the best-performing country in G7
The governments recent tax changes (like making companies pay more social-security money) might lead to some job losses in next 5 years. Trump keeps saying these import taxes are good and will bring lots of money to US‚ but UK experts dont agree with that idea