New economic forecast shows unexpected turns after Trump's election win
Fresh economic analysis predicts short-term boost followed by major shifts in US economy by late 2020s. Oxford Economics report points to complex mix of fiscal policy changes and trade limitations
The economic landscape faces big changes after Donald Trump won tuesdays presidential election. Markets showed quick positive reaction on wed but experts say its just the beginning of a complex economic journey
Oxford Economics released their “limited Trump scenario“ study which shows interesting results: tax-cuts and higher govt spending (mostly defense-focused) might give short-term benefits but theres more to consider. The forecast points to GDP growth in early-2025 — however by 2028 things could get tricky due to labor-market issues and trade limitations
The proposed trade changes look serious:
- 20% tariffs for all trade partners
- At least 60% tariffs targeting China
- Mass-deportation of workers
- New labor-market rules
The real risks for the economy are the known unknowns
The mix of strict trade rules and worker deportations could hit hard. Experts say nobody tried such combo before: blocking goods movement while removing farm and service workers at same time. Its like testing un-proven economic ideas in real-time — something that makes financial pros nervous
The short-term market happiness was easy to predict but long-term effects are harder to calculate. If these high tariffs come fast instead of slow the economy might feel pain sooner than expected; inflation could jump and trade might shrink faster than planned
