Ken McCallum, Director of MI5, has issued a stark warning about the escalating threat of state-sponsored assassination attempts on British soil. In a rare public address, McCallum revealed that the United Kingdom is grappling with a significant increase in plots orchestrated by Russia and Iran.
Since January 2022, MI5 and law enforcement agencies have thwarted 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots, marking a 33% rise from previous reports. This surge in activity coincides with heightened tensions following the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, which sparked widespread protests in Iran.
McCallum expressed concern that Iran might broaden its targets in the UK if Israel retaliates against Iran's recent missile barrage. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, involving Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, could potentially trigger terrorist attacks on British soil.
The complexity of the current threat landscape is unprecedented, with hostile states, lone attackers, and a resurgent Islamic State group contributing to what McCallum describes as "the most complex and interconnected threat environment we've ever seen." This assessment comes as MI5, founded in 1909, faces evolving challenges in its mission to protect the UK.
State-threat investigations have surged by 48% in the past year, with Iran, Russia, and China identified as the primary instigators. McCallum highlighted Russia's military intelligence agency's attempts to create "mayhem" in Britain and other European countries through arson, sabotage, and other disruptive activities.
"The first 20 years of my career here were crammed full of terrorist threats. We now face those alongside state-backed assassination and sabotage plots, against the backdrop of a major European land war."
Both Russia and Iran are reportedly recruiting criminals, ranging from international drug traffickers to petty criminals, to carry out their operations. This tactic adds another layer of complexity to the threat landscape that MI5, with its workforce of approximately 4,000, must navigate.
The UK's official terror threat level currently stands at "substantial," the middle tier of a five-point scale introduced in 2006. This designation indicates that an attack is likely. Since 2017, MI5 and police have successfully disrupted 43 late-stage terror plots, demonstrating the ongoing vigilance required to safeguard national security.
While Islamic extremist ideology accounts for about three-quarters of terror plots, with the extreme right responsible for the remainder, McCallum noted that these categories fail to fully capture the diverse range of beliefs and ideologies observed. The threat landscape is further complicated by online hatred, conspiracy theories, and disinformation.
The MI5 director also warned of worrying signs that the Islamic State group is reemerging, despite the collapse of its self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria in 2019. He stated that after being suppressed for several years, the group has resumed efforts to export terrorism.
As MI5 approaches its 115th anniversary, it continues to adapt to these evolving threats. Operating under the Security Service Act 1989 and reporting to the Home Secretary, the agency works closely with international partners, including the Five Eyes alliance, to counter global threats.
The current situation underscores the critical role of MI5 and its partner agencies in safeguarding the UK against an increasingly complex array of threats. As the agency's motto "Regnum Defende" (Defence of the Realm) suggests, MI5 remains at the forefront of protecting British interests in an ever-changing global landscape.