In a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have reportedly launched their largest incursion into Russian territory since the war began. The operation, which started on August 6, 2024, has been ongoing for three days in Russia's Kursk region, located in western Russia along the Ukrainian border.
According to reports from Russian military bloggers, Ukrainian forces have occupied several border villages and part of the town of Sudzha. The operation allegedly involves regular Ukrainian brigades, with Russian officials claiming that approximately 1,000 troops, supported by armored vehicles and tanks, crossed the border from Ukraine's Sumy region.
"War is war, with its own rules, where the aggressor inevitably reaps corresponding outcomes."
This incursion marks a significant shift in the conflict dynamics, as previous Ukrainian offensives into Russia were primarily led by anti-Putin volunteer militias not formally affiliated with Ukraine's Armed Forces. The scale and nature of this operation have raised questions about Ukraine's strategic objectives and the potential implications for the ongoing war.
One of the key developments in this operation is Ukraine's reported control of a gas metering station approximately 8 kilometers inside Russian territory. This has led to speculation that Kyiv's goal might be to disrupt Russian gas deliveries to Europe, potentially as a leveraging point in future negotiations. As of August 8, 2024, gas was still flowing through Sudzha, the last operational shipping point for a pipeline carrying Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.
The use of U.S.-provided military equipment in this operation has also drawn attention. While the White House has recently permitted Kyiv to use donated weapons to strike Russian forces at some points across the border, taking U.S.-supplied fighting vehicles into Russia is still prohibited under the terms of Ukraine receiving the weapons. The U.S. State Department has stated that decisions about military operations are ultimately made by Ukraine.
Valery Gerasimov, Russia's chief of general staff, reported to Vladimir Putin that the Ukrainian offensive had been halted. However, Russian military bloggers have painted a different picture, criticizing Russian forces for inadequate border fortifications and lamenting the loss of Sudzha to Ukrainian forces.
The timing of this operation is noteworthy, occurring as Ukrainian forces have been losing ground in the eastern Donetsk region, particularly around the strategic hub of Pokrovsk. Some analysts suggest that Ukraine might be attempting to divert Russian forces from the east to defend against this new offensive in the Kursk region.
As the situation remains volatile, Ukrainian officials have ordered the evacuation of approximately 6,000 people from the Sumy region, bracing for potential Russian reprisals. The outcome of this operation and its impact on the broader conflict remain to be seen, as both sides continue to adapt their strategies in this protracted war.