The US retail sector demonstrated remarkable resilience in July 2023, with sales surging 1% from the previous month. This increase, the most substantial since January 2023, has alleviated concerns about potential economic weakening under the pressure of elevated prices and interest rates.
Kamala Harris' presidential campaign is likely to highlight this positive economic data, while her opponent, former President Donald Trump, has criticized the Biden-Harris administration's economic record. However, it's important to note that Trump's claims about cost increases on food and monthly mortgage payments were significantly exaggerated.
The Commerce Department's report revealed strong sales gains across various sectors, including auto dealerships, electronics and appliance stores, and grocery outlets. This uptick in consumer spending, which is the primary driver of economic growth in the United States, suggests that Americans remain willing to spend despite ongoing economic challenges.
Economists at Morgan Stanley have responded to this positive data by revising their growth forecast for the July-September quarter to a 2.3% annual rate, up from an earlier estimate of 2.1%. This adjustment follows a healthy 2.8% expansion rate in the April-June quarter.
"The ongoing resilience of consumer spending should ease recession fears and reduce the odds markets have placed on a larger (half-point) cut"
The robust retail sales data, combined with other positive economic indicators, has led many economists to predict a "soft landing" for the US economy. This scenario envisions the Federal Reserve successfully cooling inflation through interest rate hikes without triggering a recession.
It's worth noting that the US retail industry is the largest private-sector employer in the country, supporting one in four jobs. This underscores the sector's critical role in the overall economic health of the nation.
While consumer spending remains strong, some economists have expressed concern about the increased use of credit cards to fuel purchases. The proportion of Americans falling behind on credit card payments, though still relatively low, has been rising. This trend warrants attention, especially considering that the first credit card, Diners Club, was only introduced in 1950.
On a positive note, cooling inflation may provide households with a much-needed boost. In July 2023, consumer prices rose just 2.9% from the previous year, the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2021. This moderation in inflation could help sustain consumer spending in the coming months.
Major retailers are adapting to changing consumer behaviors. Walmart, the world's largest company by revenue, reported strong sales for the three months ending July 31, 2023. The retail giant has not observed any signs of consumer weakness and has even boosted its sales outlook for the year.
Other companies are introducing lower-priced options to attract budget-conscious shoppers. For instance, McDonald's, which opened its first restaurant in 1940 in San Bernardino, California, introduced a $5 meal deal in US restaurants in June 2023, with most franchisees planning to extend the offer through August.
As the US economy navigates these complex dynamics, the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, established in 1977, remains crucial. The central bank's ability to balance these objectives will play a significant role in shaping the economic landscape in the coming months.