The Sri-lankan governments win over Tamil Tigers (LTTE) gives some hints about Hamas future in Gaza. The south-asian conflict ended about 15 years ago when LTTE – a group known for its terror acts including killing of high-ranked officials was fully destroyed
The Tigers case shows that Hamas future depends on two main things. First is how fast their leaders are taken out: when Yahya Sinwar and other top Hamas people were eliminated it raised questions about groups survival. Looking at LTTE case – their complete defeat happened when almost all leaders were gone except some people abroad who couldnʼt do much to keep things going
The second key point is about people getting hurt during fights; this affects how others see both sides. Last year in oct-2023 Hamas did something that looks planned: they attacked Israel knowing it would cause a big response. Now they put their bases near regular people (just like LTTE did) which makes things harder
In Sri-lankaʼs case international groups tried to stop the fighting because many regular people were getting hurt. About 300k civilians were stuck in LTTE areas; they used them as shields. The same thing is happening now:
- Hamas keeps weapons in schools
- They work from hospitals
- Their fighters move with regular people to safe zones
- They hold captured people in civilian areas
The Sri-lankan government didnʼt stop even when other countries said they were doing bad things – thats what made them win. Now Israel faces same pressure because of 42k people hurt in Gaza but Hamas keeps hiding among civilians
The end result will depend on two things: how many Hamas leaders survive and what people think about all the civilians getting hurt. History shows that groups like this need good leaders to keep going; without them they fail – but hurting too many regular people can make others support Hamas more