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B.C. housing sales, prices expected to decline in 2023: BCREA forecast

But any dip in prices won’t last long, with a strong rebound predicted for 2024.

Houses are covered with snow as the downtown skyline is seen in the distance, in Vancouver, on Wednesday, December 21, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association says the chill across the province's real estate sector will drag on through 2023, but it calls for a strong rebound next year.
Houses are covered with snow as the downtown skyline is seen in the distance, in Vancouver, on Wednesday, December 21, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association says the chill across the province's real estate sector will drag on through 2023, but it calls for a strong rebound next year. Photo by DARRYL DYCK /THE CANADIAN PRESS

B.C.’s once high-flying housing market is expected to continue its decline this year, driving prices across the province down, said the British Columbia Real Estate Association.

But any dip in prices won’t last long, with a strong rebound predicted for 2024.

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In a forecast released Monday, the association said home sales have dropped through last spring and summer and are trending close to 25 per cent below normal.

Sales in 2023 are expected to be down seven per cent — from nearly 81,000 units in 2022 to just over 75,000 — as households adjust to a slowing economy and struggle with higher mortgage rates.

But sales will surge to about 93,000 in 2024, a nearly 24 per cent increase, said the BCREA.

“A slowing economy and still elevated mortgage rates are expected to keep housing activity lower than normal through much of 2023,” said chief economist Brendon Ogmundson in a release.

“However, we expect a strong recovery, boosted by an expected decline in mortgage rates and record high immigration that will carry significant momentum into 2024.”

The sales slump is forecast to be be most dramatic in Chilliwack, where home sales are expected to drop 14.7 per cent; the Fraser Valley, 11 per cent; and the Okanagan, 10.6 per cent.

Victoria and Greater Vancouver are expected to see more modest decreases of 3.1 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively.

The “abrupt shift” in market conditions has led to falling prices despite low inventory. Average prices on MLS will be “relatively flat” this year, said the BCREA in its report.

Home prices in Chilliwack are expected to tumble nearly 14 per cent to $700,000, while Fraser Valley residential prices are expected to fall 13 per cent to $955,000.

In Greater Vancouver, residential prices will decrease by 7.2 per cent in 2023, said the report, going from an average price of $1.27 million to $1.18 million, while Victoria property prices are forecast to decline 5.7 per cent from just above a million to $955,000.

chchan@postmedia.com

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