Conservatives’ détente over Freedom Convoy endures, for now

While some Conservative MPs and MLAs openly supported the Freedom Convoy as it began a year ago this weekend, others were highly critical of the protests

OTTAWA — The past year has seen many Canadians become politically engaged for the first time in their lives because of the Freedom Convoy, as well as conservative politicians hoping to bring this potential new pool of voters into the fold.

Political experts and observers who spoke to the National Post believe there is still a divide within the Conservative movement as to how different leaders should have approached the Freedom Convoy but that the debate has mostly been behind closed doors, at least for now.

The electoral performance of leaders who have publicly embraced the convoy, whether it be UCP Leader Danielle Smith in Alberta or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre federally, will likely determine whether the apparent unity within the parties will endure, they said.

Yan Plante, a former senior staffer in Stephen Harper’s government who now works as a consultant at Quebec-based firm TACT, says there remains a certain “clash” in the Conservative movement between “principled conservatives” — those uncomfortable with the tactics of the convoy — and “rural populists,” who supported it.

“If you don’t agree when First Nations block railroads or pipelines… you can’t side with truckers who block and occupy Parliament Hill,” he said.

But Keith Wilson, a lawyer representing Freedom Convoy organizers, suggested politicians cannot ignore a movement that rallied thousands and thousands of Canadians across the country — whether they were in Ottawa or cheering away on a rural highway overpass.

“I believe that Conservative politicians paid attention to that, and they said, ‘Wow’.”

Reactions varied across the Conservative movement. While some Conservative MPs and MLAs took pictures and openly supported the Freedom Convoy as it began a year ago this weekend, others were highly critical of the protests taking place in the nation’s capital.

Then Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole tried to find some middle ground by meeting with truckers who were on their way to the nation’s capital, before the official start of the protests on Jan. 28, but he was criticized on both sides for doing so. He was ultimately ousted on Feb. 2.

Melanie Paradis, O’Toole’s former director of communications and now president of Texture Communications, said that the events surrounding the convoy did not lead to O’Toole’s ouster. “There was a lot more going on there. And had been going on for a while.”

Pierre Poilievre, who had distributed coffee and doughnuts to convoy supporters, launched his bid to replace O’Toole as leader on the second weekend of the protests, on Feb. 5.

A similar struggle brewed within Alberta’s United Conservative Party at that time, but observers also said that the political damage done to then Premier Jason Kenney had occurred well before the Freedom Convoy and did not ultimately alter his tepid support in the leadership review that led him to resign.

“Certain members of caucus had already turned on him and were organizing against his leadership before the first horns were honked,” said a former close official to Kenney who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Jared Wesley, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta, has been researching the rise in polarization in his province for a decade.

“Where I think observers make the biggest mistake is to assume that the convoy or freedom movement is fundamentally conservative,” he said, adding that very few of the “hardline Freedom Convoy supporters” would consider themselves to be small-c or big-C conservatives.

“They may vote for those parties now, but in the past, they just weren’t voting at all from what we know from our research.”

Wilson said that many convoy supporters experienced a political “awakening” last year, many of them taking an interest in politics for the first time. But he did not want the Freedom Convoy to be “characterized as partisan” and associate itself with one party or another.

“It stood for itself, and it was open to any political party including the Trudeau Liberals, to decide whether or not they agreed with what the truckers and what the many supporters and protesters were standing for,” he said.

Poilievre ultimately took the helm of the Conservative Party of Canada in September with a massive victory, presenting himself as an “anti-establishment” candidate ready to fight for “freedom,” which ultimately brought in hundreds of thousands of supporters.

Smith, a former leader of the Wildrose Party in Alberta, became UCP leader and premier in October after campaigning against vaccine mandates and advocating for Alberta’s autonomy.

Paradis said that the Freedom Convoy did not come out of nowhere. It was the “physical manifestation” of a growing range of frustrations that had been bubbling up in multiple areas of the country, she said, and were exacerbated by COVID-19 measures and mandates.

“I think it’s overly simplistic to say that the convoy itself has had this big impact on conservative politics when really it’s this broader sentiment,” she said.

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Wesley said he remembers talking with political strategists in Alberta who were “very worried” after the 2019 federal election and the spike in the separatist sentiment that followed, and felt the need to appeal to those people in the “mainstream conservative fold.”

“So I think that the convoy was seen as part of that grander challenge,” he said.

It remains to be seen what effect these new political forces will have. Wilson believes convoy supporters could become a new voting bloc that could influence elections, and the Alberta election this year will likely be the first test.

For now, in Ottawa and Edmonton, Conservatives are keeping a united front in preparing for their electoral battles.