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After more than four months of fierce fighting, Russia claimed an important victory. It is to take full control of one of the two states in the eastern industrial center of Ukraine.
However, Moscow's rout of the last remaining Ukrainian resistance breakwater in Luhansk was expensive. The key question now is whether Russia can complete the seizure of Donbus and gather enough power for new attacks to make a profit elsewhere in Ukraine.
"Yes, the Russians occupied the Luhansk area, but what was the price?" Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said that some Russian troops involved in the battle He pointed out that he lost up to half of his soldiers.
Even President Vladimir Putin admitted on Monday that Russian troops involved in the action in Luhansk need to "rest and strengthen their fighting capabilities."
It raises the question of whether Moscow's army and its separatist allies are ready to quickly and deeply plunge into another state of Donbus, Donetsk. Observers have estimated that Russia has dominated about half of Doneck in recent weeks, and the front hasn't changed much since then.
What happens in Donbus can determine the course of the war. If Russia succeeds there, it can free its troops to gain more land and determine the terms of the peace agreement. On the other hand, if Ukraine succeeds in detaining Russians for a long period of time, it may accumulate resources for a counterattack.
Exhausting the Russians was part of the Ukrainian plan to start the conflict, but Western weapons will eventually scale in their favor. I was hoping that I could do it.
They are already effectively using heavy Hawitzers and advanced rocket systems from the United States and other western allies, and much more is underway. But Ukrainian troops say they are terribly superior.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Hannah Mallar recently said that Russian troops are firing 10 times more ammunition than Ukrainian troops.
After a failed attempt to advance lightning in the capital of Kiif in the first few weeks of the war, Russian troops withdrew from many areas of northern and central Ukraine to the mining area of Donbus. I turned my attention. And a factory where Moscow-backed separatists have fought the Ukrainian army since 2014.
Since then, Russia has taken a slow and steady approach to Luhansk in recent weeks.
Analyst Zhdanov predicts that Russians are likely to rely on thermal dominance in Donetsk to "apply the same charred earth tactics and blow up the entire city." Did. New artillery was reported in the city of Donetsk on the same day that Russia claimed to have occupied the last major city of Luhansk.
However, the Russian approach is not without its drawbacks. Moscow hasn't counted casualties since it said about 1,300 troops were killed in the first month of the fight, but Western officials say it's only part of the actual loss. I am. Since then, Western observers have pointed out that the number of Russian troops involved in combat in Ukraine has declined. This reflects both a sharp decline and a failure to fill the rank of Kremlin.
Due to limited personnel, Russian commanders avoid ambitious attempts to surround large areas of Donbus, choose smaller operations and rely on heavy artillery to be Ukrainians. Was slowly retreated.
The military also relies heavily on separatists who have mobilized several times, and Western officials and analysts say Moscow is increasingly contracting with civilian military contractors. Said. He also tried to encourage the Russian man who toured the mission to re-register, but it is unclear how successful it was.
So far, Putin has refrained from declaring widespread mobilization that may contribute to social dissatisfaction, but recently proposed legislation includes Moscow's replenishment of ranks. Suggested that you are looking for a way to. The bill would have allowed young recruits, who had been drawn into the army for a year and banned from combat, to quickly switch positions and sign contracts to become fully professional soldiers. The draft was shelved in the midst of strong criticism.
Some Western officials and analysts claim that the friction is so great that it could stop the attack on Moscow at some point in the second half of the summer. However, the Pentagon says that Russia is rapidly stirring its troops and supplies and still has abundant resources.
U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haynes says Putin seems to be embracing the slow pace of progress in Donbus and wants to win by crushing Ukraine's most competitive army. He said he was out.
"Russia believes that crushing one of the most capable and well-equipped troops in eastern Ukraine will basically lead to a reduction in Ukraine's resistance. Greater opportunities for them. May give, "Haines said.
If Russia wins in Donbus, it may eventually try to separate Ukraine from the Black Sea coast based on the seizure of part of The Polygidia adjacent to the southern Carson region. There is sex. The road to the Romanian border. If successful, it will have a devastating impact on the Ukrainian economy and will create a corridor to Transnistoria, the separatist region of Moldova, which hosts Russian military bases.
But that is not guaranteed. Mykola Sunhurovsky of the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based think tank, predicted that an increased supply of heavy Western weapons, including multiple HIMARS rocket launchers, would help Ukraine change the course of the war.
"The supply of weapons will allow Ukraine to launch a counterattack in the South and fight for Carson and other cities," Sunflovsky said.
However, according to authorities, Ukraine also faces the loss of up to 200 soldiers per day in the last few weeks of fierce fighting in the east.
"Overall, the rural military balance of Donbus favors Russia, but the long-term trend still favors Ukraine," said a Russian military expert based in Virginia. Put Michael Coffman, Program Director of CNA Think Tank, wrote. "But that estimate is conditional on sustained Western military assistance and does not necessarily predict the outcome. This can be a protracted war."
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Related press journalists Yulas Karmanau (Rivib, Ukraine) and Eric Tucker (Washington) contributed to this report. Follow AP's coverage of the war between Russia and Ukraine at
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https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
