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Iran's oil exports could rise further after June-July gain, tracker says

Article authors:

Reuters

Reuters

Alex Lawler and Chen Aizhu and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

London/Singapore — Iran boosted oil exports in June and July, but this month saw flows track Russia's crude oil to China, which is the main buyer, according to the company

Despite US sanctions, during the presidency of Joe Biden, Iran increased its oil exports, mainly to China, although shipments have slowed recently due to competition from Russian crude. ing.

"Since the new US administration, Iran has increased its exports of oil, products and petrochemicals," said Sarabakhshori, an energy consultant at SVB International.

In addition, pressure on Tehran to reach the nuclear deal has eased due to soaring oil prices. It will be able to expand sales to former buyers in South Korea and beyond.

Iran's oil ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

China's crude oil imports may pick up in August. That's because Russia's oil price advantage will be replaced by a drop in demand in Europe due to concerns over sanctions over Russia's aggression in Ukraine, added Vortexa Analytics analyst Emma Li. .

“Iranian crude faced stiff competition from Russia's Urals in July as unlicensed barrels were offered at similar discount levels. Chinese refiners may return to cheaper Iranian barrels in August as oil prices widen.

Import heavily discounted Russian and Iranian crude China is making its economy more competitive, but the West is paying much higher prices for alternative crude oil from the Middle East, Africa and Middle East.United States.

China's foreign ministry said Reuters In response to a question on , Beijing said it had long opposed Washington's sanctions, although it was unaware of the details of the oil flow from Iran.

We maintain normal trade with both Iran and Russia in the field.These legitimate cooperations deserve respect and protection," the spokesperson said.

Former US President Donald Trump withdrew from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers in 2018, reimposed sanctions, and put maximum pressure on Iran's oil exports and revenues. I tried

Later, Iranian exports could drop to his 100,000 bpd in 2020, according to tanker trackers.

STEADY FLOW

Iran generally does not release figures, has no definitive figures for its oil exports, and estimates are often wide-ranging. , satellite data, port handling data, and human intelligence are used to monitor flows.

The SVB estimates that Iran's crude oil exports in July totaled 810,000 bpd, an increase of 110,000 barrels per day from June. Petro Logistics, which also tracks Flow, said he saw an increase of over 850,000 bpd in June, but has since eased.

Meanwhile, Vortexa said her July Iranian imports in China were about 500,000 bpd, all fed to independent refiners or commercial vaults, compared to her close to 700,000 bpd in June. We estimate that it was bpd.

China's estimated purchases include relatively small amounts of official imports, totaling about 5.7 million barrels in the first six months of 2022, and increasing national stockpiles. became. 2021.

Iranian crude in August was offered at a $11 a barrel discount to China-based Brent he benchmark, $8 below Russian Ural crude, according to traders. . The spread widened from $3.5-4 a barrel in late July.

The SVB said he saw Iran's exports rise in July, but Petro Logistics said he tracked a decline from June's highs to around 700,000 bpd, the lowest so far. By the way, he said August was at a similar rate.

"After a strong first four months of the year, exports fell to low levels in May before surged again in June. Volumes eased in July and

Kpler said crude oil exports hit 950,000 bpd in June, the highest monthly level in three years, but fell in July.

Exports of petroleum products have also increased, with consultant FGE estimating that Iran exported about 790,000 bpd of products in June, with shipments rising to 100 bpd by the fourth quarter. Estimated to reach nearly 10,000 bpd, more than half were LPG and fuel oil

(edited by Alexander Smith)