KRYK: Are Chiefs benefitting from ‘home cooking’ in most home playoff wins?

Strictly numerically, yes, as visiting teams penalized more than K.C. in 10-of-11 home post-season games in Mahomes era — but former NFL head of officiating says drop the conspiracy theories

Have Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs benefitted from ‘home cooking’ in all those home-field playoff wins since 2018?

As so many fans believe?

No, not the kind of home cooking the Missouri city is famous for — mouth-watering barbecue. But, rather, from the alleged assistance of NFL on-field officials.

The short answer, in a strict counting of penalties, is yes, absolutely — Mahomes and crew have, in fact, been flagged fewer times than their visiting foes in all but one of 11 home playoff games over the past five seasons.

But deliberately? Unfairly so? By NFL intention?

Conspiracy theorists all believe yes, as it seems millions of dispassionate others do, too, given how social media blew up following Kansas City’s narrow win over the Cincinnati Bengals, aided by a string of late penalties — some controversial — in the AFC championship game a week ago Sunday.

The Chiefs advanced to play the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday night in Super Bowl LVII (6:30 p.m. EST).

On Tuesday we asked Dean Blandino to weigh in on the issue of perceived bias in the league’s officiating ranks. Blandino worked integral jobs in the NFL’s officiating department for two decades, culminating in a four-season run as the league’s vice president of officiating from 2013-16. He’s now an on-air rules analyst during NFL and college games for FOX Sports.

No, there’s no intentional, secret help being afforded the Chiefs or any other team, ever, Blandino insisted. Of course not. And he explained why, in addressing the uneven penalty counts in Chiefs’ home playoff games during the Mahomes era.

First, those numbers. Those of you certain the NFL is conspiratorially helping the Chiefs win playoff games will love the following raw stats.

The Chiefs have been called for fewer infractions than their opponents in 10 of 11 home post-season games; the lone exception came when they edged the Cleveland Browns in January 2021; the Browns were penalized three times, the Chiefs seven.

In both of K.C.’s only two playoff games over the past five years away from their raucous home, Arrowhead Stadium — namely, the Super Bowls following the 2019 and 2020 seasons — the Chiefs were flagged more times than their opponent, and by a wide combined margin, 15-9.

But in 11 home playoff games since 2018 (nine of which the Chiefs won) opponents have been flagged 63 times in total, or 5.7 per game, compared to 46 for the Chiefs, or 4.2 times per game.

Blandino said that while the historical number of accepted penalties per game, during the regular season, is about eight per team, in the playoffs that number typically drops — as evidenced by Kansas City’s postseason games in the Mahomes era.

Why?

“We’ve studied this and looked at this,” Blandino said in a phone interview. “There are a variety of factors.”

Such as better teams typically play more mistake-free football just to reach the postseason.

“We all understand how important these games are, so the stakes are higher, and players are going to be more focused — especially the post-play stuff. Maybe in the regular season players will let their emotions get the best of them, whereas in the post-season they understand they can’t cost their team with a 15-yard penalty.”

What about the officials themselves? Are they instructed to call fewer penalties in the playoffs, flat-out?

No, Blandino said.

“But there’s something with the officials themselves, a subconscious thing where they don’t want to be the deciding factor. They never do, but there has been over the years a sense of, hey, in the playoffs we’re going to — although I hate this term, and I’ve never heard any NFL officiating supervisor direct game officials in this regard, and I certainly didn’t as head of officiating — that we’re going to ‘let them play.'”

“Because then you’re inevitably going to allow teams to get away with certain things and gain an unfair advantage. So, no. But with certain officials, there may be a tendency to be less likely to inject themselves into the game by throwing flags.”

If it seems as though the Chiefs have barely been penalized over the past two playoff seasons, well, it’s kind of true. In five playoff games over the past two Januarys, only 13 penalties, total, have been called on the Chiefs — for 131 yards. That’s not even a bad afternoon for the sloppy Dallas Cowboys under head coach Mike McCarthy.

The Chiefs’ game-by-game penalty roll call over the past two Januarys: Three vs. Pittsburgh, one vs. Buffalo, and two vs. Cincinnati a year ago; and three vs. Jacksonville and five vs. Cincinnati last month. Opponents’ log, respectively: four, three, and four a year ago; five and nine last month.

Does the NFL care about such low or discrepant counts? Blandino:

“You’re always monitoring those things. If the Chiefs are getting fewer penalties at home during the playoffs, again, it’s not the same officials from year to year, or game to game. It’s a different mixed crew, every time.

“When you do look at those numbers, yes, the opponents were called for more fouls, but it’s one-and-a-half more per game. That’s not abnormal. If, over the course of six or seven years, the Chiefs’ opponents were getting 15 fouls called, and the Chiefs two or three, that would jump out more as a problem. But the league is aware of all those things, and that’s just part of it.”

What about potential officiating bias, in general?

“It’s something we have looked at,” Blandino said. “Without question you’re looking at it, whether it’s crews or individual officials, calls that are made for or against the home team, or visitor team. What we’ve seen over the years is there isn’t a big disparity between the home team and the away team. I don’t have the exact numbers over the last couple of years. But it’s certainly not a case of home teams getting the benefit of 75% or 80% of the calls. It’s much closer to 50/50.”

Blandino said when he was in charge of NFL officiating, 2013-16, he specifically pored over all penalty calls to see if any individual officials were being influenced by the home crowd and atmosphere.

“As you bring officials along you want to weed out those that are going to be impacted by the home crowd. When I was there we even looked at calls made along the home-team sideline — sideline officials switch sides at halftime, and that goes back many years — so that they’re not on one team’s sideline for the whole game. But in my time nothing really jumped out as an issue.”

In Kansas City’s defence, don’t losing teams typically commit more fouls?

“It’s interesting. We did a study two or three years ago, looking at that,” Blandino said. “The biggest statistical factor in whether you win or lose is turnovers. Having more or fewer fouls than your opponent is not a significant factor in terms of determining the outcome.”

What about this observation — that, beyond individual infractions, isn’t it that fans don’t really want a game to be officiated FAIRLY (as that means sometimes their team will commit more infractions and, thus, should be penalized for it) but rather EQUALLY? Equal penalty counts?

“Yeah, and that’s why sports are so great!” Blandino said. “Look, everybody complaining always says it’s the officials who determine the number of fouls called. No, it’s the two teams that decide how many fouls are called. When one team fouls more than the other team, that’s why we have such disparities.

“Do officials see every foul? No. We know that. That’s not reality that they’ll catch everything. But over time, the more successful teams tend to foul less, overall — just in being more disciplined, and playing with a better understanding of the rules.”

John Kryk writes a weekly newsletter on NFL matters. That’s where you can first see his straight-up picks each week. You can have the newsletter automatically dropped into your email inbox on Wednesdays simply by signing up — for free — at https://torontosun.com/newsletters/

JoKryk@postmedia.com

@JohnKryk