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Reuters
Farah Master and Albee Zhang and Casey Hall
HONG KONG — Chinese authorities wielded extraordinary powers during the severe COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year. Watching her exercise changed Claire Jean's life plans: She's not going to have a baby in China anymore.
Between April and her May lockdown, the hashtag "We are the last generation" briefly circulated on Chinese social media and was subsequently censored.
This phrase was used when a man in protective gear was visited by authorities and threatened to punish his family for three generations for failing to comply with COVID-19 rules. reflected the reaction.
"It really hit me," said Jiang, taking her man's remarks as her own answer to her motherhood question.
"I absolutely hope that you leave your children with the uncertainty of living in a country where the government can come to your door and do whatever they want. No," said the 30-year-old, who works in the media industry.
Studies show that pandemics and economic uncertainty have historically impacted fertility rates around the world.
However, particularly in China, the uncompromising “No COVID-19” policy of tightly controlling people’s lives and immediately eradicating the outbreak has severely impacted their desire to have children. could have done significant damage, say demographers.
During the lockdowns in Shanghai and other regions, people lost their income, had no access to medical care or food, and authorities forced their homes into their homes, killing the elderly and children. There were numerous reports of people being taken to isolation centers, including
Demographers believe that people's feelings of losing control over their lives due to such events can have a significant impact on their goals of becoming a parent. said.
"China is clearly a big government and a small family," said Yi Fuxian, a prominent Chinese demographer. "China's zero COVID policy has led to zero economy, zero marriages, and zero fertility."
China's National Health Commission and Family Planning Commission immediately responded to requests for comment. I didn't.
Chinese officials have repeatedly said zero COVID is needed to save lives, compared with only 5,226 officially reported in China since the start of the pandemic. It points to millions of deaths worldwide.
Bad Signs
A July United Nations report predicted that China's population of 1.4 billion could begin to decline as early as next year, with India It will overtake China as the world's most populous country.
UN experts now see China's population shrinking by her 109 million by 2050. That's more than three times her decline from previous forecasts for 2019.
According to another United Nations China report, the pandemic had long-term effects on first births. Women cite financial insecurity, unfounded concerns about the impact of COVID vaccines on their unborn children, and the difficulty of conceiving and caring for an infant under severe restrictions.
"Couples who might have considered having children next year definitely put it off. Couples who were really unsure put it off indefinitely," says the United Nations Population. Justin Coulson, the foundation's China rep, said.
Demographers say the number of newborns hit a record low this year, dropping from 10.6 million last year to just under 10 million, an 11.5% drop from 2020. is doing.
Although official 2022 population data is not expected to be released until early next year, several parts of China have released worrying statistics in recent weeks. I'm here.
Screening for birth defects, a reliable proxy for fertility rates in China's third most populous province of Henan, decreased 9.5% year-on-year in her first six months.
Other cities reported double-digit declines in the number of new birth certificates issued. Jiaozhou, a city of one million in Shandong province, saw a 26% decline in the first six months. Hukou in Jiangxi saw a 42% decline.
Corporate financial statements also provide some hints: Formula maker Ausnutria Dairy, diaper maker Aiyingshi and crib and stroller maker Goodbaby will lead to losses in the first half of the year. It is one of the companies that cited the decline in the number of births in China as a factor.
None of these figures reflect the impact of lockdowns in places such as Shanghai earlier this year.
But demographers have a glimpse of how COVID-19 restrictions have affected births in 2020 and 2021, and expect 2022 to be even worse.
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Demographer Yi collated data on searches for infant tuberculosis vaccines, marriage registration, and maternity and baby products on Baidu, China's leading search engine. He estimates that COVID will reduce the number of births by one million in 2021 and 2022 combined, and that 2023 could be even worse.
Root causes
China, which imposed a one-child policy from 1980 to her 2015, has officially admitted that it is on the brink of population decline.
The fertility rate of 1.16 in 2021 is among the lowest in the world, below the stable OECD population benchmark of 2.1.
During this year or so, authorities cut taxes, extended maternity leave, strengthened health insurance, housing subsidies, additional funds for a third child, We have introduced measures such as crackdowns on expensive housing. Personal guidance.
Demographers say the measures taken so far are not enough. They cited high education costs, low wages and notoriously long working hours as issues that still need to be addressed, in addition to coronavirus and economic growth concerns.
According to Peter McDonald, professor of demography at the University of Melbourne, gender inequality is the main underlying cause of low fertility, with China ranked 102nd out of 146 countries by the World Economic Forum. ing.
Her Jiahui Wu, a 25-year-old financial analyst, said society's standards for good mothers are strict.
"It seems a lot easier to be a good father," she said. "I prefer to have a good career." (Reporting by Farah Master, Hong Kong; Casey Hall, Shanghai; Albee Zhang, Beijing; additional reporting by Kiki Lo and Xiaoyu Yin; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Lincoln Feast)
