If an election were to be held today, the Conservative Party would win more seats than the Liberals, the latest seat projections from Nanos Research show.
In the last two federal elections, the Conservatives edged out the Liberals on the popular vote but failed to win the most seats, allowing Justin Trudeau to form consecutive minority governments.
"You know, in the past, the Conservatives have led but haven't been efficient at converting into seats. But now in the latest Nanos seat projections that we have, we actually have the Conservatives winning more seats than the Liberals, which means there would be a chance of not just a Liberal defeat, but of the Conservatives having a chance to form a government," said Nanos Research's Nik Nanos on the latest episode of Trend Line.
While a federal election is unlikely anytime soon, given that the Liberals and the NDP have a governing deal until 2025, the seat projections show the Conservatives winning 108 seats if an election was held today, compared to 106 seats for the Liberals. Much of this has to do with the Conservative Party's projected performance around the Greater Toronto Area, where the Liberals have previously dominated.
The projections also show the NDP winning 41 seats and the Bloc Quebecois winning 24.
"But the kicker is there are 67 -- count 'em, 67 --- ridings that are too close to call right now," Nanos said.
Some of these suburban ridings around Toronto, such as those in Oakville and Burlington, had been considered "traditionally very strong" ridings for the Liberals in the last two elections, Nanos said. But the projections now suggest these ridings are leaning Conservative or too close to call.
Results of 2021 federal election in Ontario (GTA) (Nanos Research)
Current Nanos modelling shows seat projections in GTA, with grey ridings too close to call within 7%; black too close to call within 2% (Nanos Research)
"The big game changer here is that the Conservatives are doing better in Ontario than they have in the past, and as a result, it's yielding more seats," Nanos said.
"If you are Justin Trudeau or an adviser to Justin Trudeau, you've got to be thinking, 'Oh boy.' There are some ridings at risk that are traditionally Liberal ridings. You have to be very careful on what happens in the next couple of years."
The projections also show the NDP picking up more seats. In the last three elections, the NDP has been shut out of Toronto, but now, some of the downtown ridings are projected to go orange.
Nanos believes the Liberals are in dire need of renewal if they want to win the next election amid growing concerns over the impact of inflation and the potential for a recession.
"I think they have to kind of renew their mission and vision for that for the country, and basically explain why they deserve another mandate. So expect them to do some renewal," he said. "If they don't do renewal and just think that they can do what they've done in the last few years, I'm not sure that's going to work."
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