NFL WEEK 5 PICKS: Titans should be in command over Commanders

The lines are from covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.

DENVER -3.5 over Indianapolis

Next week’s Washington-Chicago matchup has a VERY low bar to step over in terms of excitement.

New York Giants +8.5 over Green Bay in London

This is the first-ever matchup in England featuring two teams with winning records. Weird, right? Expect a battle on the ground between two strong rushing attacks and two defences that have underwhelmed. While the Packs should come home with a win, we’re not expecting a cover.

Seattle +5.5 over NEW ORLEANS

At this point, can you trust the Saints to pull off a cover of more than a field goal? The Seahawks offence obviously isn’t as good as their win in Detroit would leave you to believe, but Geno Smith has been incredibly efficient .

JACKSONVILLE -7 over Houston

Rivalry games can get dicey, but the Texans just don’t have the talent to compete with … checks notes …  the Jaguars? While it might be tough to admit, the Jags are looking very good this season and rank as a top-five team in DVOA, while the Texans are second last.

Pittsburgh +14 over BUFFALO

Can Kenny Pickett be the spark that gets the Steelers really moving? Maybe, but it’s not going to equal a win this weekend. The Bills are superior to the Steelers in every way, but Pittsburgh has a habit of playing to their opponents’ level and can keep things close.

TAMPA BAY -8.5 over Atlanta

Rarely do you hear calls for a QB change after a win, but that’s the case in Atlanta. While the running game has been working for the Falcons, it will be in tough with Cordarelle Patterson out against the Bucs defence.

MINNESOTA -7 over Chicago

The Vikings are back from across the pond after eking out a win over the Saints. At least they get a somewhat easy matchup against the underwhelming Bears. Justin Jefferson got on track last week and did it against a star CB, which spells bad news for Chicago.

Tennessee -2.5 over WASHINGTON

One trend we’ve noticed is that the teams appearing on Thursday Night Football have been very poor the Sunday before and Washington is in that spot here. Carson Wentz has started Wentzing again and the defence hasn’t stepped up. The Titans are flawed, but are in a great spot here.

Miami -3.5 over NEW YORK JETS

They don’t call Teddy Bridgewater ‘Teddy Covers’ for no reason. Bridgewater has been a friend to bettors with a 27-7 ATS record as a starter. The Jets won last week in Zach Wilson’s season debut, but needed some luck to do so.

CLEVELAND +3 over Los Angeles Chargers

This is a fairly close matchup when you look at the DVOA rankings of both teams, which makes it quite curious that the Browns are home dogs. We’ve also got an early start, which can often spell trouble for travelling West Coast teams.

NEW ENGLAND -3 over Detroit

The Lions’ defence is historically awful. While the offence can make up for it, the missing pieces will certainly be felt against a team led by Bill Belichick. Look for the Pats to run the ball down the Lions’ throats.

San Francisco -6.5 over CAROLINA

The Niners get a bit lucky with this one being a late afternoon start, negating that advantage for the Panthers. Baker Mayfield has been an incredible disappointment in Carolina and is tough to back, even getting nearly a TD at home.

Philadelphia -5 over ARIZONA

The Cardinals rank fourth-worst in DVOA and, despite a 10-point win over Carolina, struggled at times. They come home to face a superior squad that has everything working for it. The Eagles might take their foot of the gas with Dallas on tap next week, but a cover should be in order.

Dallas +4.5 over LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Rams offence outside of Cooper Kupp has been troubled so far this season. And with a downgraded offensive line and Allen Robinson looking washed up, the Cowboys defence might be able to keep the champs in check, or at least close enough for a cover.

Cincinnati +3 over BALTIMORE

We’re not expecting the Bengals to score a blowout win against their division rival, as they did twice last year. But with a few extra days to prepare and the Ravens coming off a tough loss to Buffalo, this feels like a close one.

KANSAS CITY -7 over Las Vegas

The Raiders got off the starting line last week with a win over the Broncos but don’t expect too much momentum to continue from that. Patrick Mahomes 53-14 in prime time and are coming off their own big win over the Bucs last week.

Last week: 4-10-2

This season: 27-35-2

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