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Odds of China invading Taiwan up ‘drastically,’ government think tank says

Chinese President Xi Jinping may even decide to use an invasion to deflect attention from his country’s stumbling economy

Members of the Taiwanese navy stand in front of a U.S.-made missile on a frigate at a naval base in Penghu Islands, Taiwan, on Aug. 30.
Members of the Taiwanese navy stand in front of a U.S.-made missile on a frigate at a naval base in Penghu Islands, Taiwan, on Aug. 30. Photo by Ann Wang/Reuters

TAIPEI, Taiwan — The chances of China invading Taiwan have risen “drastically” recently, as the island readies to fight with or without international support, say analysts at a think tank created by the Taiwanese government.

Chinese President Xi Jinping may even decide to use an invasion to deflect attention from his country’s stumbling economy and other domestic woes, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research suggested to a group of foreign journalists Monday.

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But they said Canada’s decision to send warships through the Taiwan Strait is a useful counterpoint to Beijing’s claim that it owns the stretch of ocean separating the island from mainland China.

  1. Canada's Industry Minister John Manley meets with Taiwan's Council for Economic Planning and Development Chairman Chiang Pin-kung in Taipei, September 10, 1998. “It was a different era both politically and economically,” Manley now says regarding the lack of “major pushback” from China at the time over his three day visit to Taiwan.

    Last Canadian cabinet minister to visit Taiwan on China's more aggressive foreign policy

  2. A globe is seen in front of Chinese and Taiwanese flags in this illustration, August 6, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

    NP View: The West must stand up for Taiwan

Their grim predictions of a looming attack come as tensions rise around the democratically governed territory, which Beijing insists is a renegade province that must be folded into the People’s Republic.

The key may be whether — as expected — Xi is returned for a third term when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds its 20th National Congress next month, said institute fellow Christina Chen.

“Xi is the leader who always has this reunification in mind and he wants to kind of make this his personal historical legacy. So if he does become re-elected, it is very likely he will try to fulfill this goal of reunification,” said Chen.

“We always have to bear this in mind, that the invasion is very likely, the likelihood has gone up drastically over the recent time.”

Outside on the streets of Taipei Monday, life went on as usual, the graceful, densely populated capital city teeming with traffic and pedestrians.

China has always insisted that Taiwan belongs to the People’s Republic and Xi has talked about peaceful “reunification.” But he’s never ruled out using military force and his government has ratcheted up rhetoric and threats around the issue in recent months.

When Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taipei to show her support in August, Beijing responded with a military show of force that saw naval ships surround Taiwan and missiles fired overhead.

At the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said any attempt to prevent “reunification” of Taiwan with the mainland would be “crushed by the wheels of history” and outside interference met with “the most forceful steps.”

Chen said analysts believe the domestic situation in China will be an important predictor of its military intentions toward Taiwan.

“The CCP is running into a lot of trouble. Economy-wise it’s not doing well — a stagnating economy. People are not happy about the (zero-COVID) policy,” she said. “It may make the CCP want to use external aggression to divert the domestic public attention.”

Ming-Shih Shen, the publicly funded institute’s acting deputy CEO, said China would likely not launch an amphibious landing on its own, but first try to destroy Taiwan’s defences from the air.

It may be able to then land an invasion force of more than 300,000 soldiers, but Taiwan’s reserve system could see three million people mobilized to defend the homeland, he said.

Speculation has suggested that 2027 is the year China will invade, given that year will be the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army and Xi has urged the armed forces to modernize by then.

Shen said he doesn’t believe China is ready to attack yet, though if Taiwan — which already considers itself a sovereign nation — were to formally declare independence, “no matter whether China is ready or not, they will invade.”

Meanwhile, for planning purposes, at least, Taiwan assumes it will get no backing from other countries in the event of a Chinese attack, despite Biden’s recent comments. But in planning for the worst, the Taiwanese are also hoping for the best, researchers suggested.

“In our operational plan, we don’t have any United States military intervention,” said Shen, who also said he is convinced that the U.S. will, indeed, help. “In our thinking, we will fight by ourselves.”

“In each and every war gaming or table-top exercise we participate in, we have never, ever put our side with external military aid,” said analyst Yisuo Tseng.

One agency analyst praised the sail-past last week by a Canadian and an American warship, the second joint transit by the nations in less than a year, calling it an answer to Beijing’s erroneous claims about the waterway.

“Canadian warships patrolling through the Taiwan Strait is, I would say, a very positive step in the right direction, to make the announcement that the Taiwan Strait is no internal waters of China,” said Tseng.

(The National Post is in Taiwan at the invitation and with the support of the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has no input on the coverage.)