Biden Administration Grapples with Gaza Crisis as War Anniversary Looms

As the one-year anniversary of the Gaza war approaches, internal communications reveal the Biden administration's struggle to balance concerns over rising Palestinian casualties with its public support for Israel. The conflict, which began on October 7, 2023, with a Hamas attack on southern Israel, has resulted in over 40,000 deaths in Gaza and brought the Middle East to the brink of a wider war.

Reuters reviewed email exchanges between senior U.S. officials from October 11-14, 2023, exposing early alarm within the State Department and Pentagon about potential violations of international law and the risk to U.S. relations in the Arab world. These concerns emerged as Israel launched air strikes on northern Gaza and ordered the evacuation of more than a million Palestinians from the area.

Dana Stroul, then deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, warned the White House on October 13 that the mass evacuation could lead to war crime charges against Israel. She relayed an assessment by the International Committee of the Red Cross that left her "chilled to the bone."

"ICRC is not ready to say this in public, but is raising private alarm that Israel is close to committing war crimes. Their main line is that it is impossible for one million civilians to move this fast."

The Gaza Strip, one of the most densely populated areas in the world, has been under an Israeli-Egyptian blockade since 2007. This situation complicated the evacuation efforts and raised concerns about potential humanitarian disasters.

As Israel defended its strikes, claiming Hamas was using civilian buildings for military purposes, U.S. diplomats in the Middle East monitored Arab media reports accusing Israel of "genocide" and Washington of complicity in war crimes. Bill Russo, the State Department's top public diplomacy official, urged a shift in the administration's stance, warning of damage to U.S. credibility in the region.

Despite these internal concerns, the White House initially resisted calls for a ceasefire. Brett McGurk, Biden's top adviser for Middle East affairs, emphasized support for humanitarian corridors and protecting civilians but rejected the idea of calling for a ceasefire.

The administration's public stance began to change on October 13, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledging the "suffering of Palestinian families in Gaza" for the first time. The following day, President Biden shifted his rhetoric to prioritize the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The conflict has reignited debates about the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian issue, which has roots dating back to the early 20th century. Despite numerous peace initiatives, including the Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995, a lasting solution remains elusive.

As the crisis unfolded, Israel pressed Washington for more arms. The U.S. has been Israel's largest military aid donor since the 1960s. Despite objections from the State Department's Democracy, Labor and Human Rights bureau, most arms shipments to Israel proceeded, including thousands of precision-guided missiles and 2,000-pound bombs.

The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has strained the region's already fragile economy. The Gaza Strip, heavily dependent on foreign aid and remittances, faces one of the world's highest unemployment rates. The conflict has further devastated the area, with much of Gaza now described as a wasteland.

As the war nears its first anniversary, the risk of a regional conflict involving Iran looms large. The situation remains tense, with ceasefire negotiations yielding no lasting results and the international community struggling to address the complex humanitarian and political challenges in the region.