Canadian Liberals Face Crucial Test in Montreal By-Election

On September 16, 2024, a crucial by-election in the Montreal constituency of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun poses a significant challenge for Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party. This vote, called to replace a departing Liberal legislator, has become a litmus test for the party's standing and Trudeau's leadership.

Historically a Liberal stronghold, LaSalle—Emard—Verdun now faces an unexpectedly competitive race. In the 2021 general election, the Liberals secured 43% of the vote, significantly outpacing their rivals. However, current polls suggest a neck-and-neck contest between the Liberals, the Bloc Québécois, and the New Democratic Party.

This shift reflects broader national trends, with recent surveys indicating a substantial lead for the Conservative Party. A Leger poll conducted last week revealed 45% support for the Conservatives, while the Liberals trail at 25%. Such a gap in public opinion is uncommon in Canadian politics, where the multi-party system typically results in closer margins.

The by-election's outcome could intensify discussions about Trudeau's future as party leader. Some Liberal legislators have already voiced concerns. Alexandra Mendes, representing a Quebec constituency, reported widespread dissatisfaction among her constituents regarding Trudeau's leadership.

"I didn't hear it from two, three people - I heard it from dozens and dozens of people. He's no longer the right leader."

Despite these challenges, Trudeau maintains his commitment to lead the party into the next federal election, which must occur by October 2025. He attributes current voter frustration to economic pressures, particularly the elevated cost of living and housing crisis.

The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre since September 2022, has capitalized on these issues. Poilievre promises to eliminate the federal carbon tax and has recently pledged to limit immigration until housing supply improves. His confrontational style has drawn both support and criticism, with a notable incident in April 2024 resulting in his ejection from the House of Commons.

As the Liberals prepare for the upcoming general election, they plan to intensify efforts to portray Poilievre as aligned with the Make America Great Again movement, drawing parallels to former U.S. President Donald Trump's policies.

The by-election results, expected to be delayed due to an unusually high number of candidates, will be closely watched as an indicator of the Liberal Party's prospects and Trudeau's political future. This event underscores the dynamic nature of Canadian politics, where public opinion can shift rapidly, challenging even long-established political strongholds.