China's Top Diplomat Visits Myanmar Amid Escalating Civil Conflict

Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, recently visited Myanmar to meet with Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the country's military government. This visit comes at a time of increasing instability in Myanmar, as the nation grapples with a civil war that has seen unprecedented gains by ethnic militias, particularly in the northeast along the China-Myanmar border.

China, which shares a 2,129 km border with Myanmar, has expressed serious concern over the attacks by ethnic militias on army-controlled areas in northern Shan State. The Chinese government has stated its opposition to chaos and war in Myanmar, as well as interference by external forces in the country's internal affairs.

The visit underscores the complex relationship between China and Myanmar. Despite Western sanctions against Myanmar's military government, which seized power from the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, China has maintained working relations with the ruling junta. This stance aligns with China's non-interference policy, although the current situation has challenged this approach.

China's interests in Myanmar are substantial, with billions of dollars invested in infrastructure projects, including mines, oil and gas pipelines. These investments are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to enhance regional connectivity and economic cooperation. The Myanmar-China oil and gas pipelines, in particular, are strategic assets for China's energy security.

However, the recent military defeats suffered by Myanmar's army threaten the stability that China deems essential for protecting its interests. The Three Brotherhood Alliance, a group of powerful militia groups including the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, launched a joint offensive in October 2023. This alliance has roots in the former Communist Party of Burma and has historical ties to China.

The offensive resulted in the capture of large swaths of territory, including important border crossings and major military bases. The recent seizure of Lashio, a major trade hub between Myanmar and China, by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army has further complicated the situation.

"There is a deep well of anti-Chinese sentiment in Myanmar, particularly in the military, and Min Aung Hlaing is known to harbor particularly strong anti-Chinese views."

Analysts suggest that China's relations with Myanmar's military government, particularly with Min Aung Hlaing, are severely strained. The ongoing conflict has led to speculation that China may adjust its policies to protect its strategic and economic interests in Myanmar.

As the situation evolves, China faces the challenge of balancing its non-interference policy with the need to safeguard its investments and strategic interests in a country rich in natural resources, including jade, which is highly valued in China. The outcome of this conflict may reshape China's approach to Myanmar, as Beijing seeks to maintain stability in the region while adapting to the changing power dynamics on the ground.