Egypt's Military Aid to Somalia Raises Regional Tensions

On August 28, 2024, Egypt delivered its first military aid to Somalia in more than four decades, marking a significant shift in regional dynamics. This development is likely to exacerbate tensions between these nations and Ethiopia, highlighting the complex geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa.

The aid delivery comes in the wake of Ethiopia's preliminary agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region seeking independence from Somalia. The deal, which involves leasing coastal land in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland's independence, has been strongly opposed by the Somali government, which views it as a violation of its sovereignty.

Egypt's involvement in this regional dispute is closely tied to its long-standing concerns over Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. The dam, which began construction in 2011, has been a source of contention due to its potential impact on Egypt's water supply. It's worth noting that Egypt relies on the Nile for approximately 97% of its freshwater needs.

In response to these developments, Egypt and Somalia have strengthened their ties. Earlier this month, the two countries signed a security pact, with Egypt offering to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia scheduled to launch in 2025. This move has raised concerns among diplomatic circles about the potential for increased regional instability.

The military aid, consisting of weapons and ammunition, arrived at Mogadishu airport on two Egyptian military planes. This delivery has been viewed by some diplomats as a provocative move that could further antagonize Ethiopia. One diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that Somalia was "playing with fire" by importing Egyptian arms.

Somalia's stance against the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has led to threats of expelling Ethiopian troops currently stationed in the country as part of peacekeeping efforts and bilateral agreements to combat al-Shabaab militants. This situation underscores the delicate balance of power and alliances in the region.

"If the Egyptians put boots on the ground and deploy troops along the border with Ethiopia, it could bring the two into direct confrontation. The threat of a direct shooting war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible."

The ongoing dispute has prompted diplomatic efforts to find a resolution. Turkey, which has been increasing its influence in Somalia since 2011, has hosted two rounds of indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia since July 2024, with a third round expected next month.

As tensions continue to simmer, the international community remains watchful of developments in this strategically important region. The Horn of Africa, known for its vulnerability to droughts and food insecurity, can ill afford further instability. With Somalia boasting the longest coastline in mainland Africa and Ethiopia being the second-most populous country on the continent, the stakes for regional peace and cooperation are exceptionally high.