Harris Boosts Democratic Polls, Yet Trails Previous Nominees
Vice President Kamala Harris's nomination has improved Democrats' polling position, but she's underperforming compared to Clinton and Biden. Current data may not predict final election results.
The 2024 US presidential race has taken an unexpected turn with Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee. While her nomination has bolstered the party's position in national and state-level polls, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture.
Harris is currently underperforming compared to Hillary Clinton's 2016 numbers and the 2020 Biden-Harris ticket at this stage of the campaign. However, it's crucial to note that these early polls may not be indicative of the final election outcome.
Analyzing data from FiveThirtyEight, a website renowned for its statistical analysis of politics, we can compare the current situation with previous election cycles since 2012. The national polling averages for Democratic and Republican candidates show interesting trends over the last 150 days of each campaign.
One notable observation is the significant shift in the 2024 race following President Joe Biden's decision to step aside. Prior to this, Biden's numbers were static while Donald Trump's were rising. Post-Harris nomination, Democratic support has surged while Republican numbers have plateaued.
In the crucial swing states, particularly in the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada) and the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), Harris is showing mixed performance. She's generally faring better than previous nominees in the Sun Belt, except in Georgia where she trails Biden's 2020 numbers. In the Great Lakes states, Harris is underperforming compared to both Clinton and Biden.
It's important to consider the historical accuracy of polls, especially in swing states. In recent elections, polls have often underestimated Republican support. If this trend continues, Harris's current underperformance could be more concerning for Democrats.
"We can say with certainty, though, that the two truths with which this article began remain true. The Democratic position is much better than it was a month ago, but it's not better than it was four years ago."
The addition of North Carolina as a potential swing state, recently reclassified as a "toss-up" by the Cook Political Report, adds another layer of complexity to the electoral landscape.
As the campaign progresses, it remains to be seen whether Harris can maintain or expand her current support. The final outcome will likely depend on various factors, including campaign strategies, debates, and unforeseen events that could sway voter opinions in key battleground states.
