House Set to Reject Johnson's 6-Month Funding Plan, Risking Shutdown

The U.S. House of Representatives appears set to reject Speaker Mike Johnson's proposed six-month government funding plan, escalating tensions as the September 30, 2024 deadline approaches. This development threatens a potential government shutdown on October 1, 2024, coinciding with the start of early voting for the November elections.

Johnson's bill, combining a six-month funding extension with voter registration provisions, has faced opposition from various factions within the Republican party. Defense-focused lawmakers express concerns about national security spending constraints, while deficit-conscious members reject the continuing resolution (CR) outright, preferring full-year appropriations.

The situation echoes the 2023 funding crisis that led to Kevin McCarthy's removal as Speaker. This highlights the ongoing challenges within the Republican majority, which holds 435 voting seats in the House. The Speaker's role, second in the presidential line of succession, remains precarious amidst these internal conflicts.

Democrats and many Senate Republicans favor a three-month extension, allowing for negotiations during the post-election "lame duck" session. This approach aligns with the previous two-year spending agreement between McCarthy, President Biden, and congressional Democrats.

"The one thing you cannot have is a government shutdown. It would be politically beyond stupid for us to do that right before the election because certainly we'd get the blame."

The U.S. federal government operates on a fiscal year from October 1 to September 30, necessitating regular funding legislation. Since 1976, there have been 21 funding gaps, with the longest shutdown lasting 35 days in 2018-2019. These historical precedents underscore the potential consequences of the current impasse.

Johnson's insistence on the current plan, despite lacking support, raises questions about potential alternatives. Some Republicans hope a failed vote will allow for a "clean" three-month funding bill with Democratic support. However, this approach could jeopardize Johnson's position as Speaker, reminiscent of the events leading to McCarthy's ousting.

As the House Majority Whip, Tom Emmer, attempts to rally support, the outcome remains uncertain. The situation highlights the complex dynamics within Congress, where the bicameral legislature must navigate competing interests to fulfill its constitutional duty of passing appropriations bills.

With non-citizen voting in federal elections already illegal since 1996, the inclusion of voter registration provisions in Johnson's bill has been a point of contention. This aspect, combined with the funding extension length, has drawn opposition from the Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House.

As the clock ticks towards the funding deadline, the potential for an omnibus spending bill – combining multiple appropriations into one large package – looms. This approach, while controversial, may become necessary to avoid a government shutdown that could have significant political and practical implications as Americans prepare to cast their votes in November.