Trump's Persistent New York Dream: A Reality Check on Electoral Odds

Donald Trump's persistent prediction of winning New York in presidential elections continues to raise eyebrows among political observers. The former president's latest assertion came during a rally on Long Island, where he confidently stated, "We're going to win New York."

This optimism, however, appears to be at odds with historical trends and recent polling data. New York has consistently voted for Democratic candidates in presidential elections since 1988, with the last Republican victory dating back to Ronald Reagan in 1984. The state's 29 electoral votes have remained elusive for GOP candidates for nearly four decades.

A recent Siena College poll, released just a day after Trump's rally, shows the former president trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by 13 points in New York. While this margin is narrower than his previous losses in the state, it still represents a significant hurdle for any Republican candidate.

Trump's connection to New York runs deep. Born in Queens, the most expansive borough of New York City, he later sought acceptance in Manhattan's high society. This background may partly explain his persistent focus on winning the state, despite its long-standing Democratic leanings.

In 2016 and 2020, Trump's predictions of victory in New York fell flat. He lost the state by more than 20 points in both elections. In his home precinct in 2016, the margin was even wider, with a nearly 40-point defeat.

The former president's optimism for 2024 seems to be partly based on recent Republican successes in New York. The GOP's performance in the 2022 midterm elections contributed significantly to their narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Additionally, Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin performed better than expected against incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul, though he still lost by over six points.

"I can win New York, and we can win New York. We're going to win New York. And if you vote for me, I'm going to reduce your taxes, reduce your crime and reduce your levels of stress."

While a closer race in New York could potentially impact the national popular vote tally, the state's electoral votes remain a formidable challenge for any Republican candidate. New York has consistently been about 20 points more favorable to Democratic candidates than the national average over the past six presidential elections.

As the 2024 election approaches, Trump's quest for New York's approval and electoral support continues. However, based on historical trends and current polling, it appears that his dream of conquering the Empire State may remain unfulfilled for a third consecutive election cycle.