Trump's Risky Bet: Targeting Infrequent Voters in Key States

In a bold move, the campaign of Donald Trump is placing a significant emphasis on mobilizing infrequent voters in crucial battleground states for the upcoming November 5, 2024, presidential election. This strategy marks a departure from traditional campaign tactics and could prove decisive in the race against Democrat Kamala Harris.

The Trump campaign's focus on "low propensity" voters - individuals who don't consistently participate in elections - is particularly evident in seven key states. This approach, while potentially game-changing, carries substantial risks. It demands intensive effort and resources, with no guarantee that these targeted voters will ultimately cast their ballots.

Campaign volunteers like Rachel and Chris Gottberg exemplify this strategy. The couple, sporting "Trump Force Captain" t-shirts, have been canvassing in York, Pennsylvania, targeting newly registered and infrequent voters. "We know they agree with us. We know they favor us, but we have to get them to the polls," explains James Blair, the Trump campaign's political director.

This focus on infrequent voters is not without precedent. In the 2020 election, which saw the highest voter turnout in over a century, similar strategies were employed. However, the current campaign is intensifying these efforts, recognizing the potential impact in closely contested states.

"When you break down the numbers, you realize there's 300,000 low-propensity, conservative-leaning votes in Arizona alone. When you're losing these states by 10,000 ballots or 20,000 ballots, you realize just how much potential there is if we do the work of engaging these voters beforehand."

The Harris campaign, in contrast, appears to be pursuing a broader-based strategy. While specific details are limited, their approach includes efforts to appeal to women and other groups not firmly committed to Trump through rallies and voter registration drives.

Trump's campaign is receiving substantial support from pro-Trump organizations specifically targeting lower-frequency voters. These include America PAC, backed by tech billionaire Elon Musk, and Turning Point Action, a non-profit planning to invest $108 million in hiring hundreds of paid canvassers in battleground states.

However, this strategy is not without its critics. Some party officials express concern that too much focus on infrequent voters might come at the expense of reaching swing voters, who are typically easier to mobilize. Donald Green, a political science professor at Columbia University, notes that while targeting infrequent voters can be effective in presidential election years, efficiency in resource allocation remains crucial.

The Trump campaign is modeling its general election strategy on its successful approach in the Iowa Republican nominating contest in January 2024. This involves training 50,000 volunteer captains to organize their neighborhoods and build relationships with targeted voters through multiple interactions.

As the election approaches, the effectiveness of this high-risk, high-reward strategy in mobilizing infrequent voters could prove pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.