Algeria stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey. Abdelmadjid Tebboune‚ recently re-elected for his final term as president‚ faces the task of steering the country towards a more diverse and robust economy.
The nation has made strides in infrastructure housing and agriculture. However it grapples with a lack of economic diversity and high joblessness rates. Youth unemployment hovering around 31% (as of last year) underscores the urgency for change.
Algerias economic woes stem from a mix of long-standing socialism and over-reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. This combo has left the country stuck between state-control and market-driven approaches. Moreover‚ repeated anti-graft campaigns have made many business-people wary of taking risks or innovating.
Theres no doubt that Algeria is a petrostate. It boasts significant natural gas reserves and exports‚ with its national oil company Sonatrach playing a central role. Last year‚ oil and gas exports accounted for:
- 20% of GDP
- 90% of total exports
- 60% of government revenue
However‚ Algeria possesses untapped potential beyond hydrocarbons. With the right reforms it could excel in sectors like:
- Agriculture
- Mining
- Renewable energy
- Logistics
- Manufacturing
- Tourism
- Digital services
The path forward requires a delicate balance between economic sovereignty and openness to global trade and investment. A hybrid model of state capitalism in key sectors‚ combined with foreign investment in others (similar to Chinas approach) could be a viable solution.
To achieve this transformation‚ Algeria should consider three key pillars:
- Articulate a clear vision with measurable goals (akin to Saudi Arabias Vision 2030)
- Create a sovereign wealth fund from hydrocarbon and mineral revenues
- Establish special economic zones to attract investors and create jobs
The opportunity cost of holding such large reserve levels is high not only in returns—reserves are invested in low-risk‚ low-yield securities—but also in what Algeria could gain from engaging with the world economy
Tebboune has a unique opportunity to implement an ambitious yet credible plan for economic transformation. The next five years are crucial for setting Algeria on a path towards a more diverse‚ resilient‚ and prosperous future.