Beijing shows no open preference for the next US leader but its got different play-books ready for Jan-2025. While Kamala Harris might follow current tech-focused policies Donald Trump threatens major economic shake-ups
The Biden-Harris way means careful tech-control and friend-making around the world (which China accepts while building its own tech base). However Chinese officials dont worry much about this path: they just keep working on self-development and building ties with developing nations
The Trump scenario looks way different than before. His team talks about huge tariffs - maybe 60% or higher on Chinese goods. Last time in early-2018 China played nice but now its ready to hit back hard; market experts seem to miss this point
- Target big US companies that have Chinese competitors
- Cut rare-materials exports
- Sell hundred-billion worth of US bonds
- Make more moves near Taiwan
- Drop yuan value from 7.1 to maybe 10-12 per dollar
We shouldnt underestimate Beijings willingness to take economic hits for strategic gains
Chinese leaders think drastic steps might be needed - they believe some US allies would understand their position. Xi Jinping might skip the nice-talk approach this time: instead of sending negotiators like before he could ok quick counter-hits
Smart US policy should focus on precise economic moves not all-out trade war. Building tech partnerships working with allies and using targeted controls would work better than starting an economic street-fight that nobody can win