At this weeks G-20 summit in Rio‚ global decision-makers are thinking about one person who isnt even there - the impact of Donald Trump on world affairs is becoming clearer than before
The well-known geo-political expert Ian Bremmer points to some interesting staff picks: Marco Rubio‚ Mike Waltz‚ and Pete Hegseth suggest a tough stance on key issues. More surprising choices like Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard show a different direction - with Elon Musk (who recently met with Iranʼs UN rep) playing an odd unofficial role
Business reactions are mixed-up: stocks went up after his win but long-term worries exist. The markets think Trump will:
- Cut more taxes
- Roll back rules
- Spend more money
- Put up trade walls
- Push hard on immigration
Trade talks might get rough - Trump wants 20% tariffs on everyone and 60% on China; but experts dont think those numbers will stick. The Chinese economy isnt doing great which means they might want to make a deal
About Ukraine: markets think thereʼll be a quick peace deal - maybe giving up 20% of land thats already lost. Its not perfect but might work; though European allies could split up about what to do next
The Iran situation is tricky: some want military action while others want to avoid it. But Iran seems careful now - they dont want to give anyone reasons to attack them. There might even be a new nuclear deal: Trump likes making unexpected moves when he sees a chance to win
The big picture shows many countries will try harder to work with Trump than they did 4 years ago; this means he could get some quick wins in global politics early on in 2025