In a recent move Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use American ATACMS missiles for deep strikes which made Moscow very unhappy. This step came after lots of pushing from Kiev allies and congress members who didnt like how slow Biden was moving forward
The basic numbers dont add up in this situation: US cant make enough weapons and Ukraine doesnt have enough soldiers to win against Russia. Back in early-22 Ukraine had some success getting new soldiers because of strong patriotic feelings but that advantage is gone now
The training issues are a big problem too - Ukraine cant take many soldiers off the front-line to learn how to use new US equipment (which includes fancy stuff like HIMARS that shoot ATACMS). They actually do better with old Soviet-style weapons they already know how to use
- US can only make 1 million artillery shells per year
- Ukraine needs at least 4 million
- They need thousands of Patriot missiles
- US can only make 550 yearly
- ATACMS supplies are very limited
Last yearʼs big counter-attack shows the problem clearly: Ukraine had good western weapons but could only get together about 50k soldiers while Russia had 350k troops behind strong defenses. Now its even harder for Ukraine because North-Korean soldiers showed up in Kursk region to help Russia
The production math is simple but harsh - US defense companies cant make stuff fast enough. Even taking weapons from other allies stockpiles (like in Israel and South Korea) isnt enough to keep up with what Ukraine needs; their factories just werent built to make this much this fast
A defense-focused plan might work better: Ukraine should focus on protecting what it has instead of trying to take back everything. This means building good trenches mine-fields and anti-tank barriers - not spending resources on attacks deep into Russian territory
The end result might need some give-and-take: Ukraine might have to accept losing some land and not joining NATO while Russia would need to accept Ukraine getting EU membership and western military help. Its not perfect but waiting longer probably means Ukraine loses more ground