Israel is poised to launch a limited ground operation in southern Lebanon, focusing on dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure along the border. This development comes approximately one year after Hezbollah initiated attacks on Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza.
The planned operation, which could commence imminently, aims to target Hezbollah's rocket launchers and weapons caches. This strategy represents a scaled-back version of earlier plans for a more extensive invasion, according to U.S. and Israeli sources familiar with the matter.
Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli major general and national security adviser, explained the initial steps of such an operation: "You have to touch the ground and see, to understand what's there. It's called active reconnaissance."
In recent weeks, Israel has inflicted significant damage on Hezbollah, including the reported elimination of its long-time leader, Hasan Nasrallah. This marks a crucial turning point, as Nasrallah had led the organization since 1992, overseeing its growth into a formidable force with an estimated 25,000 active fighters and an arsenal of over 130,000 rockets and missiles.
Despite these setbacks, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's new highest-ranking official, stated the group's readiness for a prolonged conflict. This stance reflects Hezbollah's deep-rooted ideology, which combines Shia Islamism with Lebanese nationalism and anti-Zionism.
The ongoing hostilities have resulted in a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. Since September 17, 2023, at least 1,168 casualties have been reported, with hundreds of thousands displaced. The conflict has exacerbated Lebanon's existing financial and political challenges.
Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized the goal of enabling the return of displaced northern Israeli residents, stating, "The next phase in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon."
The planned operation raises concerns about potential escalation. Miri Eisin, a former senior Israeli intelligence officer, noted the challenges of combating Hezbollah's underground infrastructure, which cannot be effectively neutralized from the air alone.
"We will use everything necessary ... from the air, from the sea and from the land."
The U.S. administration, while supporting Israel's right to defend itself, has expressed concerns about the operation potentially expanding beyond its intended scope. This reflects the complex dynamics of the region, where Hezbollah's influence extends beyond Lebanon's borders, including involvement in conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
As tensions escalate, the humanitarian situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate. Wael Hajj, coordinating aid distribution efforts, expressed concern about the sustainability of relief work if the situation worsens.
The conflict's impact extends beyond Lebanon's borders, with the United Nations reporting that 100,000 people have fled to neighboring Syria. This mass displacement adds to the region's already strained resources and complex geopolitical landscape.
As Israel prepares for this operation, the international community watches closely, aware of the potential for further regional destabilization and the urgent need for a diplomatic resolution to the long-standing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.