In a recent development, Israel's intelligence agency Shin Bet successfully foiled an assassination attempt by Hezbollah in Tel Aviv, highlighting the ongoing covert warfare between the two adversaries. This incident occurred simultaneously with Israel's remote activation of pagers in Hezbollah members' pockets, showcasing its advanced technological capabilities.
The thwarted attack involved a sophisticated explosive device equipped with a camera and cellular connection, planted with the assistance of a local Hezbollah asset. While the targeted defense official remains unnamed, Shin Bet confirmed that the assassination would have been remotely executed from Lebanon.
This failed attempt stands in stark contrast to Israel's recent successes in eliminating several senior Hezbollah leaders, including the group's chief, Hassan Nasrallah. These operations have dealt a significant blow to Hezbollah's morale, yet analysts caution that the organization still possesses the capacity to retaliate using similar remote tactics.
Hezbollah, founded in 1985 during the Lebanese Civil War, has a long history of employing various attack methods. Last year, a bomb planted near a tree in Tel Aviv narrowly missed former Israeli defense minister Moshe Ya'alon. This incident, along with another attack near Israel's Megiddo Junction, utilized Claymore-style mines, demonstrating Hezbollah's consistent tactics.
While Eran Lerman, Israel's former deputy national security advisor, acknowledges Hezbollah's limited presence of agents, he emphasizes that their capabilities pale in comparison to Israel's extensive intelligence network. However, Nicholas Noe, editor of "Voice of Hezbollah," describes the group as highly patient and disciplined, warning against underestimating their potential.
Hezbollah's covert capabilities, though not fully known, include:
- A trained assassination team (Unit 121)
- Global support network
- Billion-dollar international crime syndicate
- Experience in hostage-taking
- Alliances with regional militias
These resources could potentially be employed in a full-scale conflict with Israel. Nasrallah had previously threatened that "all options are on the table" in case of war, a statement that experts interpret as a willingness to use any tactic at their disposal.
"Given all the history, all options are open. From assassinations to bombings, they have not denied, starting with U.S. Marine embassy bombings. Why will they refrain now when they say all options are on the table?"
Hezbollah's global reach has been evident in past operations, including the 2012 bombing of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria and attacks on Jewish targets in Argentina in the 1990s. The group's Unit 121, revealed in 2020, is believed to be responsible for high-profile assassinations, including that of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005.
Despite recent setbacks, Hezbollah retains the ability to launch significant attacks. Experts suggest they could overwhelm Israel's air defense system with a barrage of missiles or attempt their long-planned "Conquer the Galilee" infiltration operation.
Israel has been preparing for such scenarios, successfully eliminating key Hezbollah commanders like Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Muhmud Wahbi. However, Hezbollah has historically shown resilience in replacing fallen leaders.
While Israel's technological prowess is evident, Hezbollah's strength lies in guerrilla warfare. The group's experience and entrenched positions in southern Lebanon could pose significant challenges to any ground invasion by Israel.
As the situation evolves, it remains unclear whether Hezbollah's capabilities have diminished or if recent Israeli successes have truly impacted their will to fight. The organization's ability to force the evacuation of over 80,000 Israelis from northern Israel is seen as a strategic success by its leadership.
In conclusion, while Israel has demonstrated superior intelligence and operational capabilities, experts warn against underestimating Hezbollah's potential for retaliation and its enduring nature as a guerrilla force.