Philippine Midterms: Marcos-Duterte Showdown Looms in Crucial Senate Race

The Philippines is gearing up for a pivotal political event as registration for the May 2025 midterm elections commences on October 1, 2024. This electoral process, one of the world's largest, is poised to become a significant test of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s popularity and his ability to consolidate power.

The upcoming elections will see 317 Congressional seats and approximately 18,000 positions at various levels of government up for grabs. However, the spotlight is firmly on the 12 available seats in the 24-member Senate, a chamber renowned for its substantial influence in Philippine politics.

The Senate race is shaping up to be a potential proxy battle between President Marcos and his predecessor, former President Rodrigo Duterte. This contest comes in the wake of a dramatic collapse in the alliance between the Marcos and Duterte families, which had previously secured a landslide victory for Marcos in the 2022 presidential election.

The rift between the two political dynasties has deepened due to policy disagreements, changes in foreign policy approach, and investigations into Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The tension escalated recently when Vice President Sara Duterte, Rodrigo's daughter, resigned from the cabinet and saw her office budget significantly reduced by Congress, led by Marcos' cousin.

Speculation is rife that the Duterte family, including the 79-year-old former president and two of his sons, may enter the senatorial race to challenge Marcos' influence. The Senate seats could provide the Dutertes with a powerful platform to rally support, oppose Marcos' legislation, and initiate investigations into his administration.

To counter this potential challenge, President Marcos is strategically endorsing high-profile candidates for the Senate. His slate includes former movie actors, the daughter of the country's wealthiest individual, and two of his previous presidential election rivals, including global boxing icon Manny Pacquiao.

"All eyes will be indeed on who among them would run ... or all of them. The Dutertes, notwithstanding the controversies hounding VP Sara, remain a formidable force."

The outcome of these midterm elections could have far-reaching implications for Marcos' presidency. A successful campaign would bolster his legislative agenda and potentially strengthen his influence over the selection of a successor for the 2028 presidential election, as Philippine presidents are limited to a single six-year term.

The Philippines, an archipelagic nation of over 110 million people spread across more than 7,000 islands, has a rich and complex political history. Since gaining independence from the United States in 1946, the country has experienced various political upheavals, including the People Power Revolution in 1986 that ousted Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the current president's father.

The Philippine political landscape is characterized by a multi-party system, but personality-driven politics often dominate. The country has a history of political dynasties and celebrity politicians, with actors and athletes frequently transitioning into political roles. This trend is evident in Marcos' endorsements for the upcoming Senate race.

As the registration period begins, the Philippine electorate faces a crucial decision that will shape the nation's political future. With voter turnout typically exceeding 75%, the May 2025 midterms are set to be a vibrant demonstration of Philippine democracy in action, potentially redrawing the lines of power in this dynamic Southeast Asian nation.