In the wake of Iran's recent missile attack, Israel is contemplating its retaliation options. The assault, which occurred on October 2, 2024, involved over 180 ballistic missiles, largely intercepted by Israel's advanced air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, first deployed in 2011.
Benjamin Netanyahu's government is considering several strategies to respond to this aggression. One primary option involves targeting Iranian military installations, particularly those producing ballistic missiles. This approach could also encompass disabling air defense systems and missile-launching facilities. Such a move would directly address Iran's missile capabilities, which form one of the largest arsenals in the Middle East.
Another potential target is Iran's nuclear infrastructure. While Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and U.S. intelligence concluded that Iran pursued a coordinated nuclear weapons program until 2003. Experts suggest that Iran could now produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in weeks, a concept known as "breakout time" in nuclear proliferation terms.
However, striking nuclear facilities could have severe consequences. Richard Hooker, a former U.S. National Security Council member, stated:
"It's a distinct possibility that Israel could strike Iran's nuclear facilities, but not a probability because when you do something like that you put the Iranian leadership in a position to do something pretty dramatic in response."
Israel might also consider targeting Iran's petroleum industry, given that Iran possesses the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and fourth-largest proven oil reserves. However, such action could trigger retaliatory strikes on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, potentially causing global oil prices to soar.
David Des Roches, formerly with the U.S. Department of Defense, suggested that Israel might view increased oil prices as beneficial for former President Donald Trump's re-election campaign, given the upcoming U.S. elections on November 5, 2024.
Beyond military options, Israel could explore economic and cyber warfare strategies. The United States has already imposed extensive sanctions on Iran since 1979, and President Joe Biden has indicated the possibility of additional measures. Israel's cyber capabilities, particularly those of its elite Unit 8200, could also play a crucial role in any retaliation plan.
As Israel deliberates its response, the international community watches closely. The situation underscores the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and the delicate balance of power in the region. Whatever course of action Israel chooses, it will likely have far-reaching implications for regional stability and global security.