Mozambiques recent election‚ held roughly a year ago has stirred up controversy. Daniel Chapo a 47-year-old lawyer is leading the vote count‚ however accusations of electoral fraud have surfaced. Opposition candidates are threatening nationwide protests (a situation that could lead to unrest)
Chapo‚ if elected would mark a shift from past leaders who were part of the 1960s-70s liberation struggle. He faces a country thats deep in debt and dealing with an insurgency in its northern region. The economic troubles stem from the tuna bond scandal of 8-11 years ago‚ where illegal loans were given to state enterprises. This has left Mozambique struggling to pay back debts
In the northern Cabo Delgado province‚ a terror campaign that started about 7 years ago has caused significant damage. Over 4000 people have died‚ and more than 800000 have been forced to leave their homes. The Islamic State-Mozambique (IS-M) group has been changing its tactics spreading to new areas and using makeshift bombs
Chapo ran on a peace platform‚ proposing more troops and talks with rebels. But some experts doubt this approach. Rui Mate a researcher said “Chapo will have to a wage a very big internal struggle to reverse the situation“
The current security setup includes forces from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SAMIM). Theyʼre mainly protecting valuable resources like natural gas projects. However there are worries about the real reasons behind Rwandas involvement‚ and SAMIM is facing funding issues
Mozambiques army is poorly equipped and trained‚ often running away from conflict zones. The new government will need to address human rights violations by security forces and provide support to victims. Zenaida Machado from Human Rights Watch stated:
The elected president of Mozambique should immediately set up an independent commission of inquiry to investigate the widespread rights violations by both state security forces and the insurgents
As Maputo gets ready for a new leader‚ its unclear if there will be real change in how the Cabo Delgado conflict is handled. This leaves many communities at risk and could lead to more discontent