In a dramatic turn of events, Benjamin Netanyahu's political fortunes have seen a significant upturn following recent military successes against Hezbollah. The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, 2024, has provided a much-needed boost to the Israeli Prime Minister's image as a strong leader capable of safeguarding national security.
This development comes after a challenging year for Netanyahu, marked by the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah. The Prime Minister's ability to lead effectively had been questioned, with polls indicating low public confidence in his leadership.
However, the recent military achievements have allowed Netanyahu to reassert his "Mr. Security" persona. These successes are particularly noteworthy given that they are the result of 16 years of intense intelligence work, much of which occurred under previous administrations.
"I came to the conclusion that the powerful blows that the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] has been landing on Hezbollah in recent days were not enough. … Therefore, I gave the directive."
This statement reflects Netanyahu's efforts to claim credit for the operation, highlighting the ongoing tension between his government and the military establishment. This friction stems from the controversial judicial reform attempts initiated in January 2023, which were perceived as a threat to Israel's democratic institutions.
Despite these military successes, Netanyahu's government faces significant challenges. The economy has struggled to recover from the October 7 attack, with a 0.2% contraction in the second quarter of 2024. Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P have downgraded Israel's rating, citing deteriorating fiscal metrics and increased geopolitical risks.
The coalition's handling of the war and its economic policies have drawn criticism. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's focus on funding settlements and ultra-Orthodox communities, rather than addressing wartime economic needs, has been particularly contentious.
Politically, Netanyahu's position has been strengthened by Gideon Sa'ar's decision to join the coalition on September 29, 2024, increasing its parliamentary majority to 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. This move may help the government weather ongoing controversies, including the unresolved issue of ultra-Orthodox military conscription.
As Israel navigates these complex challenges, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Netanyahu's recent political revival can be sustained. The ongoing conflict with Hezbollah, economic pressures, and internal political dynamics will continue to shape the country's trajectory in the lead-up to the next scheduled election in October 2026.