The possible comeback of Donald Trump to White House opens new ways for US-Afghan talks: as deal-maker of 2020s Doha agreement he got special status with Taliban leadership. His ex-envoy Zalmay Khalilzad sees good chances while Mike Waltz‚ new security advisor thinks old deal was bad choice
Regional powers dont wait for US decisions - they make their own moves in Afghanistan. Countries like China and UAE work with Taliban without official recognition (which makes things easier for them). Western embassies closed down in europe; US special envoy position got quiet shutdown last month
The West has four main things to deal with:
- Fighting terror groups
- Stopping drug trade
- Managing refugee flows
- Getting detained people back
ISKP terror group makes big trouble in region: they did attacks in Iran and Russia this year killing more than 200 folks. Western agents stopped their plans for Paris olympics and even a Taylor Swift show - so its getting real serious
Taliban meets alot with other countries - about 2000 talks since they took power. Last summer Uzbek leader came to Kabul and signed deals like its all normal: no talk about women rights or other hard stuff. But even Pakistan - who helped Taliban for years cant make them change their ways
Current US team works from Doha through diplomatic back-channels but its not enough. Real progress needs face-to-face talks inside Afghanistan - just like other countries do it. Keeping distance makes things worse; being there could help fix issues with terror groups migration and other problems
The Taliban dont care much about Western recognition anymore - they want respect more than papers. Their leaders lived abroad learned some diplomacy skills but still stick to their ways. When Chinese leader Xi Jinping met their ambassador it meant more to them than any official stuff