Early in his rule Recep Tayyip Erdogan was close friends with Syriaʼs Assad: they planned family trips and shared warm relations. Things changed after 2011s uprising when Assad attacked his people forcing millions to run to Turkey
Turkish policy shifted dramatically — first supporting rebel groups then trying to make peace with Assad. The Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) became Turkeys main tools in the region; the first against Kurds the second against Assad
Last month Erdogan okʼd what he thought would be a small-scale operation near Aleppo (meant to push Assad towards talks.) Instead it sparked an un-expected chain of events that ended the Assad familys control. Now Turkey faces a tricky situation with its own allies
The groups Turkey relied on have a dark past:
- HTS has links to terror groups
- SNA is known for human-rights problems
- Both groups have their own plans for Syria
- Neither wants Turkish control anymore
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani HTSʼs leader talks about welcoming refugees back and protecting everyone in Syria. His words sound nice but his groups actions in Idlib show a different story: its strict rules and harsh control make people doubt his promises
Turkeyʼs influence is getting weaker fast. Even though Erdogan sees himself as a natural leader for Muslim nations his Syrian partners dont need him like they did before. The Turks dont seem to get that their power over these groups is slipping away
The whole thing shows how Turkeyʼs Syria plans went from hoping to guide reform to using force and tricks. Now with Assad gone Turkish leaders cant help wanting to control things — but Syrians have made it clear they dont want any outside help running their country