As US voters head to polls this nov-2024‚ Chinese officials carefully watch a race that could reshape trans-pacific relations. Both candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris present different challenges for Beijing: neither option looks particularly good
The trade landscape faces big changes. Trump promises super-high tariffs (over 60%) and wants to remove Chinas special trade status; this could hit Chinese companies that sell stuff worth more than $400-billion to US markets. Some factory-owners dont feel good about this – they worry about jobs profits and growth
Harris keeps things more predictable: sheʼll likely follow Bidens playbook which means working with friends to deal with Beijing. The focus stays on tech limits Taiwan and global issues like Ukraine. The mini-partnerships in Asia (like QUAD and AUKUS) will probably stay strong even if Trump wins; these groups help keep China in check
“The basic problems between US and China wont change no matter who wins“ says Henry Wang from Beijing think-tank. Both sides in Washington see China as a rival; its just how things are now. Chinese experts think Trump might try to make deals using Taiwan as leverage but Beijing probably wont play along
The economic stuff gets tricky: new trade rules could mess up supply chains hurt Chinese businesses and make things cost more for US shoppers. Chinese factories already dealing with slow growth dont like this idea at all. Some experts say Trump might try to make separate deals on consumer goods energy and tech but nothingʼs sure yet