The upcoming Nov-5 vote raises concerns about what happens if Kamala Harris wins and Donald Trump disputes results; unlike 2020s contained aftermath this time global stakes are way higher
In todays world with active war-zones a disputed election creates two main risks according to Brian Klaas from University College London: “In the immediate aftermath Trump refusing to concede would suck up the attention of every politician and news organization on Earth leaving little bandwidth to deal with anything else“ [[associate professor of global politics]]
The Russia-Ukraine conflict faces critical timing: Ukrainian forces need more support while Moscow prepares for winter attacks (using Iran-supplied weapons). Jade McGlynn whos currently in eastern Ukraine points out: “Russia will bombard Ukraine over the winter; this would be a disaster for areas that have already had most of their energy infrastructure taken out“
The Middle-east situation is getting more complex; US influence in the region has dropped over last decade. Aaron David Miller explains: “If Israel decides to target civilian and economic infrastructure inside Iran Tehrans retaliation would be key“ – a full conflict might need US involvement
Democracy credibility faces challenges too Nic Cheeseman from University of Birmingham notes that US rivals benefit from electoral chaos:
- Russia uses instability to discredit western democracy
- China points to disorder as proof their system works better
- North Korea continues weapons development
- Iran strengthens regional position
The political uncertainty affects US diplomacy worldwide - from delayed official appointments to questions about military aid commitments; creating space for autocratic powers to reshape international relations their way