Boris Johnson news – latest: Ex-PM already planning ‘worst-case’ scenario by-election

Boris Johnson will step up campaigning in his constituency as concerns grow that he will face a by-election within months if he is found to have deliberately misled Parliament over Downing Street lockdown parties (Thomas Kingsley writes).

It comes after Tory polling guru Lord Hayward warned the former prime minister would lose his Uxbridge and Ruislip seat if he is punished severely by the cross-party committee and forced to fight for his seat.

According to The Times, Mr Johnson is planning for the “worst-case scenario”– that the committee imposes a 10-day suspension from the Commons, which could trigger a by-election.

A Tory polling guru said the former prime minister would lose his Uxbridge and Ruislip in a by-election

Boris Johnson’s attempt at a political comeback is “finished”, according to senior Tory Caroline Nokes after his torrid grilling by MPs at the televised Partygate inquiry hearing.

And a Tory polling guru said the former prime minister would lose his Uxbridge and Ruislip seat if he is punished severely by the cross-party committee and forced to face a by-election in the months ahead.

Best moments: Boris Johnson grilled by MPs over Downing Street lockdown parties

The YouGov poll found that 72 per cent of Britons think Mr Johnson is dishonest, while 51 per cent of Conservative voters and 59 per cent of pro-Brexit voters polled believe the same.

Poll finds 72% of Britons think former PM is dishonest after committee showdown on Partygate

A parliamentary inquiry, conducted by the Commons privileges committee, is investigating whether Boris Johnson deliberately or recklessly misled the Commons with his statements about Partygate.

If he is found to have done so, he could be suspended as an MP – potentially triggering a by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.

During an occasionally bad-tempered three-hour grilling, the former prime minister defended the decision to hold parties inside No 10 during the pandemic – including one attended by his wife and his interior designer – saying they had been “necessary” for work purposes.

It also emerged that Mr Johnson had been explicitly warned against claiming that all Covid guidance had been followed – but did so anyway.

Here, we summarise the key points from the inquiry so far:

Impartiality is vital and the MPs looking into the former prime minister will put fair process ahead of political party allegiance, writes Dominic Grieve

Impartiality is vital and the MPs looking into the former prime minister will put fair process ahead of political party allegiance, writes Dominic Grieve

Having missed her last moments due to Covid restrictions, Mick Yates stood two metres apart from his brothers as his mother’s coffin was lowered into her grave on 26 June 2020. A week before, Boris Johnson had been photographed in a room full of at least 30 people celebrating his birthday at a time of strict lockdown rules.

Mr Yates’ mother Doris – “frail but fully with it” – died aged 93 of Covid-19 and pneumonia on 29 May, three days after she fell ill. Mr Yates, from Wiltshire, said the Covid restrictions in place at the time made it too difficult to be by his mother’s side in Burton Upon Trent before she died.

Only he, his wife, two siblings and their wives were able to attend the funeral. “My mum was quite popular, and she did want to have a funeral where people could come along,” said the 73-year-old. “But that wasn’t possible. That was the worst side of it, that my mum’s own wishes couldn’t be fulfilled.”

He said he understood the rules “were there for good reasons” but the social distancing made the day of the funeral “incredibly poignant”. The rules also meant the family had to go their separate ways straight afterwards.

Mr Yates said, for him, it was Mr Johnson’s sheer “lack of responsibility” that was hard to bear. “I just don’t understand the mindset that says ‘not me guv’ - it’s totally disingenuous,” he said. “His track record is not good - this is just the icing on the cake. I think the whole circus around it is disrespectful to the general public.”

Failing to increase the state pension age to 68 as the government had planned could cost the taxpayer more than £60bn, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned.

The decision to bring forward the rise by seven years – so that it comes into effect between 2037 and 2039, rather than between 2044 and 2046 – was first announced by Theresa May’s government in 2017. The plan would mean millions of people being left waiting an extra year for their pension.

Ministers had until recently been expected to confirm the decision in their review of the pension age, which is due to be published by May this year. The government is legally required to publish such a review every six years.

Government set to delay announcement until after next general election, reports suggest

TikTok has been banned in the UK parliament and its network, as well on Scottish government devices, in the latest blow for the app.

The new measures were announced as TikTok launched an attempt to avoid a complete ban in the US, during hearings in Congress. They came at the same time as its chief executive, Shou Chew, told US politicians that the app was safe – but that he could not guarantee that the Chinese government cannot influence its content.

The UK’s parliament announced that the app will be blocked from “all parliamentary devices and the wider parliamentary network”, and pointed to concerns about security.

Blocks announced during hearings in US Congress over potential total ban on app

Boris Johnson’s parliamentary hearing may be over, but the inquiry still has a long way to go.

The committee is also looking at whether any potentially misleading statements from Johnson were “inadvertent, reckless or intentional” – and may look into how quickly and comprehensively such claims were “corrected”.

It’s not yet clear exactly when the committee will conclude its investigation and present its conclusion to the Commons, but it is expected to happen after Easter.

MPs will then vote to ratify or disagree with its conclusions and sanctions.

1. Johnson is found not to have misled parliament

In this case, Mr Johnson will not be sanctioned at all. However, this is an unlikely scenario.

The ex-PM has already admitted some of his statements were misleading to MPs. This means the committee is likely to judge whether Johnson corrected his statement quickly enough, so they will be looking at whether Mr Johnson was in contempt.

2. Johnson did mislead parliament and is suspended for 10 days

Mr Johnson could be suspended from Parliamentfor10 sitting days if he is found in contempt.

The suspension would trigger a recall petition.

If 10% of eligible registered voters in Johnson’s constituency then signed the petition his seat would then be declared vacant.

A by-election to fill his seat would follow.

3. Johnson did mislead parliament and is expelled

The committee could also recommend an expulsion for the former PM. This would mean the local electorate would not have a say on whether he got to keep his seat if MPs all voted to remove him from parliament.

This is unlikely gievn his support from some backbench Tory MPs.

4. Johnson did mislead parliament, but faces a lighter punishment

Mr Johnson could be found in contempt of parliament, but the committee might suggest a different sanction.

He may have to make a written apology, apologise in person to his parliamentary peers, or receive a shorter suspension which doesn’t trigger a recall petition.