Ethiopia Raises Alarm Over Arms Supply to Somalia Amid Regional Tensions

In a recent development that highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia's Foreign Affairs Minister Taye Astke Selassie has voiced apprehension regarding the supply of ammunition to Somalia. This concern comes in the wake of an Egyptian warship delivering heavy weaponry to Mogadishu on September 23, 2024.

Ethiopia, which has maintained a military presence in Somalia since 2006 to combat al Qaeda-affiliated insurgents, finds itself at odds with the Mogadishu government over plans to construct a port in the self-declared independent region of Somaliland. This rift has emerged against the backdrop of Somalia's ongoing civil war, which has persisted since 1991, creating a volatile environment where the al-Shabaab terrorist group has thrived since 2006.

The Ethiopian government's unease stems from the potential for these weapons to fall into the hands of terrorist organizations operating within Somalia. Minister Selassie expressed that the influx of armaments from "external forces" could exacerbate the already fragile security situation in the region.

This arms delivery is part of a broader shift in regional alliances. Egypt and Somalia have strengthened their ties in 2024, signing a joint security pact in August. This cooperation has resulted in two arms shipments from Cairo to Mogadishu within a month, reflecting a shared wariness towards Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian-Somali discord is further complicated by Ethiopia's status as a landlocked nation and its strategic interest in gaining sea access. The planned port in Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 but lacks international recognition, is seen as crucial for Ethiopia's economic aspirations.

"The supply of ammunition by external forces would further exacerbate the fragile security and would end up in the hands of terrorists in Somalia."

Adding to the regional tensions is the ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project, initiated in 2011 on the Blue Nile. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for approximately 97% of its irrigation and drinking water, has vehemently opposed the dam's construction, leading to what some experts term a "water war."

The situation underscores the intricate web of conflicts in the Horn of Africa, where resource management, territorial disputes, and security concerns intersect. With Somalia possessing the longest coastline in mainland Africa and the strategic importance of the Gulf of Aden, the region continues to be a focal point of international interest and intervention.

As these events unfold, the international community watches closely, recognizing the potential impact on regional stability and the ongoing efforts to combat terrorism in East Africa. The delicate balance of power and the management of vital resources like water and port access remain critical factors in shaping the future of this volatile yet strategically significant region.