Israel's Strategy Shift: Countering Iran's Long-Term Pressure Tactics
Israel's current approach inadvertently aligns with Iran's strategy of constant pressure. A new multi-faceted strategy is needed, involving difficult decisions by Netanyahu and the Biden administration to address regional conflicts and pursue normalization.
Iran's long-standing hostility towards Israel has manifested in a strategy of constant pressure, aiming to wear down the Jewish state through ongoing conflicts on multiple fronts. Ironically, Israel's current approach seems to be playing into Iran's hands, validating the very tactics it seeks to counter.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, have long held the belief that Israelis will abandon their country if subjected to relentless military threats. This assumption forms the basis of their "ring of fire" strategy around Israel. In a speech in January 2024, Nasrallah claimed that Israelis are not rooted in the land and would flee under pressure. Similarly, Khamenei has spoken of "reverse migration" as the key to Israel's downfall.
To counter this strategy, Israel needs to adopt a new approach that addresses multiple fronts simultaneously:
Gaza: Ending the ongoing conflict is crucial. The Biden administration is working towards a hostage deal that could lead to a permanent ceasefire. However, an alternative plan should focus on ending the war to secure the hostages' release, rather than vice versa. Israel could declare victory based on dismantling Hamas's military capabilities and infrastructure.
Northern border: A ceasefire in Gaza could pave the way for negotiations with Hezbollah to allow civilians on both sides to return home. The United States could play a role in deterring Hezbollah from violating any agreement.
West Bank: Israel must address the root causes of unrest, including unemployment and economic stress. Allowing vetted Palestinians to work in Israel and releasing withheld taxes to the Palestinian Authority could help stabilize the situation.
The pursuit of Saudi-Israeli normalization remains a key objective for both countries and the United States. However, this requires addressing Palestinian statehood concerns. Benjamin Netanyahu must choose between aligning with the Biden administration's efforts or siding with messianic nationalists in his government.
"Defending Israel from Iran has always been my special, historic mission."
The recent interception of Iranian drones and missiles by US forces and allies on April 13, 2024, demonstrates that Israel is not defending itself alone. This event could potentially lead to discussions about a formal US-Israeli defense treaty.
Israel's current policies are inadvertently validating Iran's approach. To effectively counter this long-term strategy, Israel must work closely with the United States and regional partners to implement a comprehensive plan that addresses immediate security concerns while also pursuing diplomatic solutions and regional stability.
By adopting this multi-faceted approach, Israel can weaken Iran's long-term strategy and secure a more stable future for itself and the region. The challenge lies in making difficult decisions and balancing immediate security needs with long-term strategic goals.
