Mexico's Ruling Coalition Gains Controversial Majority in Congress

Mexico's political landscape has shifted dramatically following a recent decision by the country's electoral institute. The ruling has granted the governing Morena party and its allies a significant majority in the Chamber of Deputies, despite receiving less than 60% of the votes in the June 2 elections. This development has ignited a heated debate over representation and the potential for sweeping constitutional changes.

Claudia Sheinbaum, set to become Mexico's first female president, is poised to inherit a powerful legislative majority when she takes office on October 1, 2024. This transition marks a continuation of the policies championed by outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

The electoral institute's decision allocates approximately 73% of seats in the lower house to the governing coalition, potentially giving them 364 seats in the 500-seat Chamber of Deputies. This supermajority would enable the coalition to approve constitutional amendments, a prospect that has raised concerns among critics.

Mexico's Congress operates under a mixed electoral system, combining first-past-the-post voting with proportional representation. The latter was designed to ensure smaller parties have a voice in the legislature. However, the recent ruling has sparked controversy over the interpretation of these rules.

The dispute centers on a law that prohibits the use of proportional seats to give any single party a majority. Morena appears to have circumvented this restriction by "lending" some of its winning candidates to allied smaller parties, which are not subject to the same limitations.

Critics argue that this maneuver grants Morena more power in Congress than it earned at the ballot box. The decision, while potentially subject to legal challenges, could have far-reaching implications for Mexico's political future.

One of the most contentious proposals put forth by the governing coalition is a plan to make all judges run for election. This move has drawn sharp criticism from various sectors, including financial institutions and diplomatic circles.

[[U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar]]

"The proposed changes pose a 'risk' to Mexico's democracy and threaten the historic commercial relationship between our two countries."

The proposal has also sparked a strike by court employees, with judges and magistrates joining the walkout. This action has effectively shut down federal courts, highlighting the gravity of the situation.

Financial institutions have expressed concern over the potential impact of these changes. Morgan Stanley downgraded its recommendation for investing in Mexico, citing increased risk. Citibanamex warned that the passage of the proposal could lead to the "cancellation of liberal democracy."

Beyond judicial reforms, the governing coalition is pushing for other significant constitutional changes. These include eliminating independent oversight and regulatory bodies, which Morena claims are unnecessary expenses. Critics fear this could remove crucial checks and balances within the government.

As Mexico navigates these complex political waters, the international community watches closely. The U.S., as Mexico's largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching $855 billion in 2023, has a vested interest in the country's political stability and economic policies.

The coming months will be crucial as legal challenges to the electoral institute's decision unfold and the new administration prepares to take office. With Mexico's constitution having been amended over 700 times since its adoption in 1917, the potential for further significant changes looms large, shaping the nation's future for years to come.