Progressive "Squad" Shrinks as Two Members Lose Primaries Amid Heavy PAC Spending

The progressive faction known as the "Squad" in the US House of Representatives is set to diminish in size following the primary defeats of two of its members. This development comes in the wake of unprecedented spending by special interest groups, particularly pro-Israel political action committees (PACs).

Cori Bush of Missouri and Jamaal Bowman of New York faced defeat in their respective primary elections, dealing a significant blow to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its super PAC, United Democracy Project, played a substantial role in these outcomes, investing nearly $25 million combined in efforts to unseat the two representatives.

The primary losses of Bush and Bowman occurred approximately 10 months after members of the "Squad" faced criticism for their stance on Israel's response to the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas. This criticism led to increased targeting by pro-Israel PACs.

However, it's important to note that factors beyond their position on Israel contributed to their defeats. In Bowman's case, redistricting significantly altered the demographic makeup of his constituency, reducing the number of Black voters who had been crucial to his previous electoral success. Additionally, Bowman faced a strong challenger in George Latimer, a centrist with extensive political experience in the area.

Bush's campaign was impacted by ads highlighting her vote against a bipartisan infrastructure bill in late 2021, which became a focal point of criticism. She also faced personal and public scandals, including an ongoing Justice Department investigation into her campaign spending.

In contrast to her colleagues' defeats, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota secured a decisive victory in her primary, winning by nearly 14 points. Despite sharing similar voting records and criticism of Israel with Bush and Bowman, Omar benefited from several factors, including a substantial fundraising advantage and endorsements from key Democratic figures.

"What I was hoping is that a strong ground game and an attention to the details of folks who felt left out would trump an overwhelming superiority in dollars. Clearly money matters a little more in politics than I had hoped."

The outcomes of these primaries highlight the complex interplay of factors in US elections, including campaign financing, redistricting, and local political dynamics. They also underscore the significant influence that well-funded PACs can exert on electoral outcomes, particularly in primary contests.

As the 2024 general election approaches, the reduced size of the "Squad" may impact the progressive voice within the Democratic Party. However, the survival of some members, like Omar, demonstrates that progressive politicians can still succeed in the face of substantial opposition spending when they effectively mobilize their base and secure strong financial support.