Chinaʼs economy expanded by 46% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year‚ slightly surpassing analysts predictions However this growth rate was lower than the 47% recorded in the previous quarter‚ putting pressure on policymakers to consider additional stimulus measures
The latest figures released by the government show some positive trends. Industrial output in September rose by 54% year-on-year‚ while retail sales increased by 32% These numbers were better than expected‚ indicating some improvement in manufacturing and consumer spending
Fixed asset investment from January to September grew by 34% year-on-year‚ remaining stable compared to the previous period However‚ the property sector continues to struggle with investment declining by 101% during the same timeframe (albeit a slight improvement from the 102% drop seen earlier)
Zhiwei Zhang‚ an economist at Pinpoint Asset Management‚ commented on the situation:
The marginal decline in growth makes the official 5% target difficult to achieve if this trend continues to year-end This may explain why the government decided to change its policy stance and boost growth in a recent Politburo meeting
The Chinese government has been ramping up stimulus efforts since late September‚ including a significant package from the central bank However‚ analysts believe more action is needed to reach the growth target and stabilize the economy for next year
Looking ahead‚ Chinaʼs economy is expected to grow by 48% in 2025‚ falling short of the governmentʼs 5% target Further slowdown is projected for 2026‚ with growth estimated at 45% The country faces long-term challenges such as overcapacity high debt levels‚ and an aging population
Investors are now awaiting a clearer fiscal policy roadmap‚ which may be unveiled in the coming weeks at the next meeting of Chinaʼs legislature There are reports of plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan this year as part of fresh stimulus measures
As China navigates these economic hurdles‚ the global community watches closely to see how the worldʼs second-largest economy will address its challenges and maintain growth momentum