Iraqi military and para-military units have built-up their presence along the Syrian border‚ watching as Sunni-led rebels gain control in neighboring territories. The forces include both regular army and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — a group thats closely linked to Tehran
About ten years ago Iraq faced serious problems when Islamic State fighters crossed from Syria‚ taking over large parts of the country. Now‚ even though the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels say they dont want trouble with Iraq many Iraqi decision-makers remain doubtful; their concerns stem from past experiences with cross-border threats
The current situation puts Mohammed Shia al-Sudaniʼs government in a tough spot: some pro-Iran groups want to help Syriaʼs Assad while others prefer staying out of the fight. Falih al-Fayadh who leads the PMF made it clear in his Dec-6 speech:
Its not wise for there to be a fire in your neighbours house while you sleep reassured without thinking of what might happen
The rebelsʼ leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani (who started as an al-Qaeda member in Iraq before moving to Syria) tried to calm things down. He reached out to Baghdad offering future cooperation but Iraqi officials seem unconvinced: they remember how similar groups acted in the past
In early winter-24‚ Iraqi and Syrian foreign ministers met in Baghdad to discuss the situation. Iraq has positioned thousands of fighters near the border — not to cross it yet but to protect its western regions from any possible threats. However this could change if the rebels take more Syrian cities or if the situation gets worse for Assadʼs government