Recent actions by Israel have heightened tensions with Lebanon, potentially setting the stage for a broader conflict. In late July 2024, Israel conducted operations targeting Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas political leader in Tehran, and Fuad Shukr, a Hezbollah commander in Beirut. These strikes follow ongoing hostilities since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.
The current situation involves frequent rocket exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel. Casualties have been reported on both sides, with approximately 350 Hezbollah fighters, 100 Lebanese civilians, 23 Israeli soldiers, and 17 Israeli civilians losing their lives. The conflict has displaced nearly 160,000 people from border regions.
Hezbollah, founded in the early 1980s, possesses a formidable arsenal estimated at 120,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles. This includes short and long-range unguided rockets, ballistic missiles, and precision-guided munitions like the Fateh-110, capable of reaching all of Israel's populated areas.
The group's military experience is extensive, having fought Israel in Lebanon until 2000 and participating in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. More recently, Hezbollah has been involved in the Syrian civil war since 2011, coordinating with Russian forces and Iran's Quds Force.
Israel, for its part, boasts a technologically advanced military, including F-35 Lightning II stealth aircraft and sophisticated missile systems. However, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has strained Israel's resources and manpower.
Both sides have embraced drone technology, with Hezbollah estimated to possess around 2,000 drones. The Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated the transformative impact of drones in modern warfare, influencing reconnaissance, targeting, and combined arms operations.
"We will inflict a heavy price on Hezbollah for their attacks."
The unpredictability of war outcomes makes it difficult to assess the potential consequences of a broader conflict. The United States, through its envoy Amos Hochstein, is attempting to foster peace while simultaneously preparing for potential escalation.
As tensions continue to simmer, the international community watches closely, hoping for de-escalation but bracing for the possibility of a devastating regional conflict.