On 2024-10-09, nearly 17 million Mozambicans will cast their votes in a pivotal election, choosing a new president and 250 members of parliament and provincial assemblies. This election comes at a critical time for the southeastern African nation, which has been grappling with a violent insurgency in its northern Cabo Delgado province for almost seven years.
The election marks the end of Filipe Nyusi's two-term presidency, as Mozambique's constitution limits leaders to two five-year terms. The Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo), which has governed the country since its independence from Portugal in 1975, is widely anticipated to maintain its hold on power.
The ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado, involving an Islamic State-affiliated group, has had devastating consequences. Since 2017, the insurgency has forced approximately 1.3 million people to flee their homes, with around 600,000 having returned to find their communities in ruins. The United Nations refugee agency reports widespread destruction of houses, markets, churches, schools, and health facilities.
Addressing this crisis has been a central theme in the candidates' campaigns. Daniel Chapo, Frelimo's presidential candidate, has emphasized the importance of peace for development. At a rally in Pemba, Cabo Delgado's provincial capital, Chapo stated, "Peace is the condition for development."
Other candidates have also focused on the northern conflict. Lutero Simango of the Democratic Movement of Mozambique has campaigned extensively in the central and northern regions, promising to tackle issues such as medicine shortages, high unemployment, and poverty. Independent candidate Venacio Mondlane boldly claimed he would eradicate terrorism in Cabo Delgado within a year if elected.
"From the moment my government is in place, I can assure you that kidnappings happening in the country, including terrorism in Cabo Delgado, will be wiped out in one year."
The election comes amid various challenges facing Mozambique. The country is experiencing severe food shortages due to an El Niño-induced drought, with the United Nations World Food Program reporting that 1.3 million people are facing severe food insecurity. Corruption remains a significant issue, with the ruling Frelimo party tainted by scandals such as the "tuna bond" affair, which resulted in a $2 billion "hidden debt" and a financial crisis.
Concerns about election integrity loom large, following allegations of widespread vote-rigging and fraud in the 2023 local elections. The Southern African Development Community has deployed 52 election observers to monitor the process, emphasizing the need for impartiality from electoral bodies.
Political analyst Dercia Alfazema suggests that a dramatic shift would be necessary for Frelimo to lose the election, given the party's established voter base. Meanwhile, Borges Nhamire, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, highlights the challenges awaiting the incoming president, noting the difficulty of managing a transition during a period of conflict.
As Mozambique approaches this crucial election, the nation faces a complex set of challenges. With its rich natural resources, including significant oil and gas reserves discovered in 2010 and one of the world's largest titanium deposits, the country has potential for economic growth. However, addressing the ongoing insurgency, tackling corruption, and improving the lives of its 32 million citizens remain paramount tasks for the next administration.
The international community will be closely watching this election in a country that has been a member of both the United Nations and the Commonwealth of Nations since 1975. As Mozambique strives for peace and development, the outcome of this vote could significantly impact the nation's future trajectory.