Donald Trump announced plans to put extra 10% tax on Chinese stuff and 25% on Mexico-Canada goods (he posted this on his social-media about a week ago). While hes not president yet the idea already made waves in global trade
The ex-presidents plan might need some legal work – like using Section 301 from 74ʼ Trade Act but he could find other quick-fixes too. Its worth noting that Trump often says big things that dont happen: remember his famous border-wall that only got 49 miles done
Beijing wont like being pushed around about things like fentanyl control; they think theyve done enough already. The real-world effect will probably be some kind of new tax – maybe not 60% like Trump said before but something less
- Vietnam could be the big winner (their costs are just 7% more than China)
- Kazakhstan might help move goods around
- Malaysia already has good setup for foreign companies
Chinese companies will try different ways to deal with this: moving to other places using different shipping routes or just talking to Trump himself (he helped companies like ZTE before)
At the UN climate meeting China helped make a $300-billion deal work but didnt promise much money themselves. Their carbon numbers are pretty high now – about 9‚24 tons per person this year which is more than EUʼs 5‚66 but less than US 13‚83
Huawei just made a phone that doesnt need American software which is pretty big news. But getting people to actually use it might be hard – they need lots of app-makers to join in
The social-media world is changing too and Chinaʼs PR people might need to find new places to work: their favorite platform X (old Twitter) isnt as popular as it used to be. New apps like Bluesky are getting more users but Chinese teams are slow to move there