European leaders split over US defense plans as crucial election approaches
European officials cant agree on future US-Europe defense relationship outcome. New research suggests major changes in trans-atlantic partnership regardless of who wins the white-house race
European diplomats in DC show different views on whats coming next: some worry about NATOʼs future while others think nothing will change (a classic head-in-the-sand approach)
The truth isnt that simple though. Even with a Harris win the US-Europe partnership might shift anyway - its moving towards a slow break-up as America looks east. The real question is how fast European countries will step-up their own defense spending; while US focuses more on China-related issues
A recent paper from Stimson Center (published this summer) shows three possible ways this might play out:
- A quick-and-messy NATO exit pushed by Trump
- A slow US pull-back caused by money problems
- A fast switch to Asia focus - maybe because of Taiwan issues - that makes Europe work together on defense
The last option fits what Jean Monnet once said about EU getting stronger when times are tough. The research points to a clear message: Europe needs to get ready for change no matter what happens in washington this fall
These scenarios show that US-Europe defense ties will change - its not about if but when. The real question is how Europe will deal with it when America starts paying more attention to Asia-Pacific region
