IR experts predict huge foreign policy shifts in upcoming White House race

A fresh mid-oct survey of 705 international-relations scholars shows big differences in how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump might shape US foreign policy

The research (done at William & Maryʼs Global Research Institute) points to major policy splits: experts say theres an 80% chance Trump would exit the Paris climate deal while Harris has just 4% chance. NATO withdrawal odds are 38% under Trump vs 1% with Harris. Trade-wise experts predict Trump is likely to raise tariffs (80% chance) compared to Harrisʼs lower 30% chance

• Iran nuclear deal: 35% chance with Harris‚ 7% with Trump
• Ukraine aid increase: 63% chance with Harris‚ 16% with Trump
• Israel military support: 75% chance with Trump‚ 54% with Harris

Some areas show less contrast — like Taiwan-China tensions and defense spending. The probability of wider conflicts in Ukraine or Middle-East stays close regardless of winner: experts see 13-17% chance of Russian nuclear weapons use; and 41-50% odds of Middle-East conflict growth

When it comes to leadership skills theres a clear gap: 92% of scholars think Harris would handle foreign-policy better (including 29% of Republican experts). The confidence in commander-in-chief abilities shows similar results — 87% trust Harris while just 6% trust Trump. International cooperation looks better under Harris too: 84% say foreign governments would work better with her administration

The experts (who did this poll about 2 weeks ago) dont always agree on things but their message is clear — the nov 5 election could really change how America deals with the world