Polling experts puzzled: Why surveys keep missing Trump's real support numbers
Poll results failed to capture **Donald Trumpʼs** true voter base for third election in a row. Lower-engagement voters and survey-resistant supporters created blind spots in pre-election predictions
For the third time running polling experts cant figure out why their numbers dont match Donald Trumpʼs actual support. The gap between polls and real results in this years election was smaller than previous mis-calculations (from 2016 and 2020) but still notable
The root of this polling puzzle seems two-fold — survey-takers are dealing with a fast-changing landscape in how people interact with polls; many Trump-leaning citizens just dont want to participate. “Its becoming harder to get accurate samples“ says polling expert James Morrison who points out that traditional methods arent working like they used to
A key factor in this years results was the non-traditional voter base. Trumpʼs campaign focused on bringing in fresh faces to the voting booth:
- First-time voters
- Irregular participants
- Young male demographics
- People who usually skip elections
The campaign team made smart moves by targeting these low-turnout groups — especially focusing on younger men who hadnt shown much interest in politics before. Their strategy paid off big-time when these new voters showed up on nov-14 and cast their ballots
